12 Jan 2026 | 06:30 AM
Emilio Nava VS Sebastian Baez Prediction
Market is pricing Nava as a slight favorite, but current hard-court performance and overall Elo-type rating models marginally favor Baez, making the underdog price attractive. Available betting splits indicate more public tickets on Nava with balanced or higher handle on Baez, suggesting mild sharp interest and no adverse line movement. There are no significant recent injury flags for either player and conditions are standard outdoor hard, where Baez has quietly improved over the last 12 months while Nava’s results have been volatile. My estimated true win probability for Baez is slightly above the implied ~47.6%, creating a small but positive expected value on Baez at 2.10.
AI-driven insights suggest this as the most probable outcome
Match Winner
Sebastian Baez