12 Jan 2026 | 12:30 AM
Defensor Sporting VS CA Progreso Prediction
Market data shows a slight lean of public bets towards Defensor Sporting but proportionally higher sharp money on them despite the price shortening, indicating modest reverse line movement value versus implied odds (~42.7%). Recent xG and chance-creation metrics in the Copa de la Liga and domestic play favor Defensor Sporting at home, while Progreso’s attack has underperformed its already low xG and struggles away. No major fresh injury absences have been confirmed for Defensor’s core starters, and weather is expected to be typical Montevideo summer conditions with no strong negative impact on the home side’s style. Given Defensor’s superior recent form, better home splits and sharp support, backing Defensor Sporting on the full-time result offers a small but positive expected value edge over the draw or away outcomes.
AI-driven insights suggest this as the most probable outcome
Full Time Result
Defensor Sporting