12 Jan 2026 | 12:30 AM
Defensor Sporting VS CA Progreso
Market data shows a slight lean of public bets towards Defensor Sporting but proportionally higher sharp money on them despite the price shortening, indicating modest reverse line movement value versus implied odds (~42.7%). Recent xG and chance-creation metrics in the Copa de la Liga and domestic play favor Defensor Sporting at home, while Progreso’s attack has underperformed its already low xG and struggles away. No major fresh injury absences have been confirmed for Defensor’s core starters, and weather is expected to be typical Montevideo summer conditions with no strong negative impact on the home side’s style. Given Defensor’s superior recent form, better home splits and sharp support, backing Defensor Sporting on the full-time result offers a small but positive expected value edge over the draw or away outcomes.
12 Jan 2026 | 10:00 PM
CA Boston River VS Danubio FC
Boston River is the home favorite in Copa de la Liga AUF and commands the lowest odds at 2.05, suggesting strong market confidence. Recent Uruguayan league form shows Boston River performing well at home with better underlying metrics than Danubio FC. The implied probability of 48.8% for Boston River at 2.05 appears undervalued given their home advantage and superior recent domestic performance. Sharp money has likely driven the Boston River line to fair value, making this the most reliable +EV opportunity in this matchup.
13 Jan 2026 | 12:30 AM
CA Penarol Montevideo VS Central Espanol FC
Peñarol are significantly stronger on predictive metrics (xG differential, shot volume, and chance quality) and have been in markedly better recent form than Central Español, especially at home. Central Español’s away record and defensive numbers suggest they concede high xG and struggle to create chances against top-tier Uruguayan sides. Current market pricing and lack of notable sharp-driven reverse line movement indicate Peñarol’s moneyline is efficient but still the safest low-risk side rather than the long-shot dog or draw. There is no strong +EV angle on underdog or draw, so the best play is a conservative position on the clear favorite winning in regulation.
13 Jan 2026 | 10:00 PM
Liverpool Montevideo VS Albion FC
Liverpool Montevideo are the stronger side in Uruguay’s structure, with historically better home results and higher underlying performance levels than Albion FC, who tend to struggle away and profile closer to a relegation-level team. Market pricing already reflects Liverpool as a clear favorite, and there is no strong evidence of reverse line movement or sharp money heavily opposing them at this number. With no major negative injury or weather/red-card-risk news flagged on Liverpool and a meaningful home advantage in Montevideo, their true win probability is likely modestly above the implied ~48–49% at 2.05. This creates a small but positive expected value on Liverpool Montevideo in the full-time result market.
14 Jan 2026 | 12:30 AM
Nacional Montevideo VS Deportivo Maldonado
Market and sharp-action indicators across major books show heavy but not extreme public support on Nacional with no significant reverse line movement, suggesting the 1.48 price is close to but slightly above fair value. Recent xG and chance-creation metrics from the Clausura and early cup play rate Nacional clearly superior at home, while Deportivo Maldonado have underperformed away with low xG and defensive frailty against top domestic attacks. Injury and squad reports do not indicate key absences for Nacional, and historical head-to-head plus home/away splits strongly favor the hosts. My estimated true win probability for Nacional is roughly 72–74%, versus an implied ~67.6% at 1.48, giving a modest positive expected value on the home win rather than the draw or away upset.
14 Jan 2026 | 10:00 PM
Montevideo City Torque VS Cerro Largo FC
Montevideo City Torque are the strong home favorites in the Copa de la Liga AUF and command superior odds at 1.94, reflecting their status as the dominant team in this matchup. Cerro Largo FC, playing away, face significant disadvantage with 4.63 odds. The implied probability heavily favors Torque's victory, and their home advantage combined with superior squad depth makes them the clear value play at these odds relative to true win probability.
15 Jan 2026 | 12:30 AM
Racing Club Montevideo VS CA Cerro
Market and sharp reports show Racing taking a majority of sharp money despite fairly balanced public action, with the price on Racing holding firm around 2.00 while Cerro’s number has been slightly pushed out, indicating resistance on the favorite rather than attraction to the dog. Recent xG and chance-creation data in the Copa and league play rate Racing clearly higher at home, with better non-penalty xG differential and fewer big chances conceded than Cerro. Cerro’s away splits are notably poor, and recent form trends negatively, while Racing’s home form and underlying metrics are solid; no major fresh injury news has tilted things in Cerro’s favor. With an implied probability of ~50% at 2.00 and true win chances projecting a bit higher based on the above factors, Racing at 2.00 is a small but positive-EV play.