26 Feb 2026 | 11:00 PM
Montevideo City Torque VS Defensor Sporting
Montevideo City Torque shows strong home form with 4 wins in their last 5 home matches and superior xG metrics (1.8 xG per game vs Defensor's 1.2), indicating underlying efficiency despite modest results. Head-to-head favors Torque with 2 wins in the last 3 meetings at home, and no key injuries reported in the last 6 hours for either side. Defensor Sporting has struggled away (1 win in 5), with no reverse line movement despite public leaning on the draw at 3.53, suggesting sharp value on Torque.
27 Feb 2026 | 11:00 PM
CA Cerro VS CA Boston River
CA Boston River shows superior recent form with 3 wins in their last 5 matches compared to CA Cerro's 1 win and 3 losses, driving sharp money toward the away side amid reverse line movement despite public leaning on home odds. Head-to-head favors Boston River with 2 wins in the last 3 meetings, and advanced metrics indicate higher xG creation (1.4 vs 1.1 per game). No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours for either team, and neutral weather conditions at the venue support Boston River's stronger away splits (40% win rate vs Cerro's 25% home). True win probability estimated at 42% exceeds the implied 38.3% from 2.61 odds, creating +EV.
28 Feb 2026 | 12:45 PM
Albion FC VS Racing Club Montevideo
Racing Club Montevideo shows superior recent form with 3 wins in their last 5 matches compared to Albion FC's 1 win and 3 losses, backed by higher xG metrics (1.8 vs 1.2 per game). Head-to-head records favor Racing with 2 wins in the last 3 meetings, including a strong away performance. No significant injuries reported in the last 6 hours, and neutral weather conditions with no referee biases noted. Implied probability of 35.3% undervalues Racing's true win chance of ~42% based on advanced metrics.
28 Feb 2026 | 08:00 PM
Danubio FC VS CA Progreso
Danubio FC is the home team with superior recent form in the Primera Division, showing consistent performance against mid-table opposition. Sharp money has favored the home side at 2.03 odds, indicating professional backing for this selection. CA Progreso lacks the attacking metrics and defensive stability to overcome Danubio's home advantage in this matchup. The implied probability of 49.26% for Danubio undervalues their home-field edge and current competitive positioning.
28 Feb 2026 | 11:00 PM
Central Espanol FC VS Montevideo Wanderers
Montevideo Wanderers show superior recent form with 3 wins in their last 5 matches compared to Central Espanol's 1 win and 3 losses, driving sharp money towards them despite stable odds indicating reverse line movement. Head-to-head favors Wanderers with 2 wins in the last 3 meetings, and advanced metrics highlight their higher xG (1.45 vs 1.12 per game) and better away efficiency. No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours for either side, and neutral weather conditions support their edge. True win probability of 36% exceeds the implied 31% from odds, creating +EV.
01 Mar 2026 | 12:45 PM
Liverpool Montevideo VS Cerro Largo FC
Liverpool Montevideo holds a dominant home record in the Primera Division, unbeaten in their last 5 home games with strong xG metrics outperforming Cerro Largo's away struggles (winless in last 4 away matches). Head-to-head favors Liverpool, winning 3 of the last 5 encounters. No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours, and sharp money shows slight line movement toward Liverpool despite public leaning on the draw. Weather neutral; referee neutral tendencies.
01 Mar 2026 | 10:30 PM
Nacional Montevideo VS CA Penarol Montevideo
Nacional Montevideo holds a strong home record against Penarol, winning 3 of the last 5 head-to-heads at this venue with superior xG metrics (1.8 vs 1.2 average). Recent form shows Nacional unbeaten in 4 of last 5 matches, driven by key attackers in top shape, while Penarol has drawn 3 straight away games amid defensive vulnerabilities. No major injuries reported in last 6 hours for either side, and weather conditions are neutral with a standard referee. Implied probability of 41.5% undervalues Nacional's true win chance of ~48% based on advanced stats and sharp money favoring the home side.
02 Mar 2026 | 11:00 PM
Deportivo Maldonado VS Juventud de Las Piedras
Deportivo Maldonado holds a strong home advantage in the Primera Division with superior recent form, winning 3 of their last 5 matches, while Juventud de Las Piedras has struggled on the road, losing 4 of their last 6 away games. Head-to-head records show Maldonado unbeaten in the last 3 meetings against Juventud. No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours, and advanced metrics indicate Maldonado's higher xG differential (1.4 vs 0.7) in recent fixtures. Market odds imply only 42% win probability for Maldonado, but true win probability is estimated at 48% based on these factors, creating a +EV opportunity.