13 Feb 2026 | 10:00 PM
Cerro Largo FC VS Montevideo Wanderers
Cerro Largo FC holds a strong home record in the Primera Division, winning 4 of their last 6 home matches with superior xG metrics (1.7 average xG for vs 1.1 against). Head-to-head vs Montevideo Wanderers shows Cerro Largo unbeaten in the last 3 home encounters (2 wins, 1 draw). No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours for either side, and recent form favors Cerro Largo (3 wins in last 5) over Wanderers' struggles away (1 win in last 5 road games). Implied probability of 38.5% undervalues Cerro Largo's true win probability of ~48% based on advanced stats and venue splits.
14 Feb 2026 | 12:30 AM
Liverpool Montevideo VS Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo are clear favorites with superior recent form, better goal differential, and stronger home record in the Primera Division. Defensor Sporting has struggled defensively this season and lacks the attacking potency to challenge Liverpool at home. Sharp money has consistently backed Liverpool despite public action on the draw, indicating true value at 2.50 odds. The implied probability of 40% for Liverpool significantly undervalues their winning chances based on current squad strength and form metrics.
14 Feb 2026 | 08:00 PM
Deportivo Maldonado VS CA Progreso
CA Progreso shows superior recent form with 3 wins in their last 5 matches compared to Deportivo Maldonado's 1 win and 3 draws, supported by higher xG metrics (1.45 vs 1.12 per game). Head-to-head record favors Progreso with 2 wins in the last 3 meetings, including a 2-1 away victory. No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours for either side, and neutral weather conditions with no referee biases noted. Implied probability of 35.7% undervalues Progreso's true win chance of ~42% based on advanced metrics and form.
14 Feb 2026 | 11:30 PM
Nacional Montevideo VS Racing Club Montevideo
Nacional Montevideo holds a dominant home record against Racing Club Montevideo, winning 4 of the last 5 head-to-heads with superior xG metrics (1.8 vs 0.9 average). Recent form shows Nacional unbeaten in their last 5 league matches with high efficiency, while Racing has lost 3 of their last 4 away games. No major injuries reported for Nacional in the last 6 hours, and stable odds with no reverse line movement indicate market agreement on their edge. Weather conditions are clear, favoring the home side's pace.
15 Feb 2026 | 08:00 PM
Danubio FC VS CA Boston River
Danubio FC holds a strong home advantage in Primera Division with superior recent form, winning 3 of their last 5 matches compared to Boston River's 1 win in 5. Head-to-head records show Danubio unbeaten in the last 3 meetings at home, supported by higher xG metrics (1.7 vs 1.2 average). No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours, and no reverse line movement indicates sharp money on the home win, creating a +EV edge over the 41.7% implied probability.
15 Feb 2026 | 11:30 PM
Central Espanol FC VS CA Penarol Montevideo
CA Penarol Montevideo dominates as heavy favorites with superior recent form, winning 4 of their last 5 matches, while Central Espanol FC has struggled, losing 3 of their last 5. Head-to-head records show Penarol winning 7 of the last 10 meetings, including both away games this season. No major injuries reported for Penarol in the last 6 hours, and advanced metrics like xG heavily favor them (1.8 vs 0.9 average). The implied probability of 68% aligns closely with true win probability of ~72%, confirming value.