Carlos Alcaraz Garfia is favored to win against Arthur Fils with moneyline odds around 1.35 due to his world No. 1 ranking, recent Australian Open 2026 triumph over Novak Djokovic, and strong hard-court form with 150 career wins. Alcaraz leads their head-to-head 2-0, including a five-set victory at the ATP Next Gen Finals, while Fils struggles against top players despite his rising potential. DexWin - Best Odds on Your Favourite Sports offers the best value on Alcaraz at the Khalifa International Tennis Complex.

The match between Carlos Alcaraz Garfia and Arthur Fils starts on February 21, 2026, at 6:00 PM local time (AST, UTC+3) in Doha, Qatar, aligning with the Qatar ExxonMobil Open schedule.

The venue is the Khalifa International Tennis Complex in Doha, Qatar, hosting the ATP 500 Qatar ExxonMobil Open on outdoor hard courts with a main stadium capacity of about 17,000, known for its world-class facilities and night sessions under lights.

Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz Garfia wins in straight sets with odds of 1.35 on the moneyline, supported by his 3-0 record in Doha openers, superior serve efficiency post-Australian Open, and Fils' 0-2 head-to-head deficit. Alcaraz's recent form includes beating top seeds like Djokovic, while Fils has shown vulnerability in clutch moments against elites. DexWin - Best Odds on Your Favourite Sports lists Alcaraz at -278 equivalent.

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia leads Arthur Fils 2-0 head-to-head, with wins including a hard-court ATP 500 match (1-6, 7-6, 6-1, 3-6, 6-4) and the Next Gen Finals encounter. Their meetings average over 4 sets, but Alcaraz's dominance in deciding sets prevails, with no victories for Fils yet in this rivalry.