Aryna Sabalenka is favored to win against Madison Keys in this Brisbane International (W) clash, as she is the current world number one and has dropped very few games in her first two matches in Brisbane while Keys needed time to find rhythm in earlier rounds. Early market prices from major sportsbooks in the last 24 hours have indicated Sabalenka around 1.40 and Keys about 2.80 on the moneyline, reflecting Sabalenka’s stronger recent hard-court form and title-winning pedigree with DexWin - Best Odds on Your Favourite Sports.

The match between Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys is scheduled to start on 9 January 2026 at 2:30 AM UTC. In local time at the tournament venue, this corresponds to 12:30 PM AEST in Brisbane, Australia.

The match will be played at Pat Rafter Arena within the Queensland Tennis Centre in Brisbane, Australia, the main show court of the Brisbane International with a capacity of roughly 5,500–7,000 for tennis. The outdoor hard court surface is typically medium-fast and often favors big servers and aggressive baseline hitters like Sabalenka and Keys.

Given Sabalenka’s dominant straight-sets wins so far in Brisbane and her status as world number one, the most likely outcome is Sabalenka to win, with fair odds implied around 1.40 suggesting roughly a 70–72% win probability, while Keys at about 2.80 offers underdog value if she serves at her peak. Bettors may also look at markets such as over 21.5 games or Sabalenka to win 2–1 in sets, as Keys’ powerful serve and past success against Sabalenka on hard courts suggest she can keep the match tight.

In their career head-to-head, Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys have met several times on hard courts, with the rivalry currently very close and each player having multiple wins, including a high-profile Australian Open final in 2025 won by Keys in three sets. Their matches are typically decided by narrow margins and dominated by first-strike tennis, with a high rate of aces and short points due to both players’ aggressive serving and return patterns.