Merab Dvalishvili is heavily favored to win with odds ranging from -298 to -470 across major sportsbooks, implying approximately 75-80% win probability. Petr Yan is the underdog with odds between +240 and +360. Dvalishvili's dominance stems from three successful title defenses in 2025, an unbeaten streak since 2018, and his signature high-volume wrestling approach with relentless pressure and pace.

The match starts on December 7, 2025 at 5:00 AM UTC, which corresponds to 12:30 AM ET (Eastern Time) on December 7, 2025.

The venue is T-Mobile Arena located in Las Vegas, Nevada. This is the primary location for UFC 323, which takes place on December 6, 2025 (local Las Vegas time).

Merab Dvalishvili is predicted to win with moneyline odds of -470, suggesting approximately 82% win probability. The most likely outcome is a decision victory for Dvalishvili, priced at -210, reflecting his wrestling-heavy fighting style. Yan presents genuine upset potential with his recent resurgence and improved defensive metrics, but Dvalishvili's dominance and consistency make him the clear favorite.

Merab Dvalishvili leads the head-to-head record against Petr Yan with one previous victory in 2023, where he dominated the fight in every facet. This upcoming match is their second meeting, with Dvalishvili seeking to become the first UFC champion to achieve four successful title defenses in a single calendar year if he wins this rematch.