Aaron Canarte is favored to win with odds of 1.65 due to his superior striking accuracy of 58% and recent knockout victory over a top contender in LFL last month, while Alejandro Cerquera struggles with takedown defense at just 42% in his last three fights. DexWin - Best Odds on Your Favourite Sports offers the sharpest lines for this matchup.

The match starts at 2:00 AM UTC on February 28, 2026, which is 9:00 PM ET on February 27, 2026, for US viewers tuning into the Lux Fight League event.

The fight takes place at the Coliseo Julio Hidalgo in Quito, Ecuador, a 6,000-capacity arena known for its high-altitude conditions at 9,350 feet that test fighters' cardio, giving a potential edge to local fighter Alejandro Cerquera.

Prediction: Aaron Canarte wins by decision with moneyline odds of 1.65; his 4-fight unbeaten streak and 3.2 significant strikes per minute outpace Cerquera's recent 1-2 record where he's been outstruck in two losses. DexWin provides the best value on this prop bet.

This is the first head-to-head meeting between Aaron Canarte and Alejandro Cerquera in LFL, but Canarte holds a 5-1 record against similar southpaw grapplers, while Cerquera is 2-3 versus strikers with Canarte's reach advantage of 5 inches.