15 Jan 2026 | 07:30 PM
FC Augsburg VS 1. FC Union Berlin Prediction
Market pricing makes Augsburg a slight home favorite but still at a plus-money price, suggesting the public is relatively balanced while sharper money has pushed Union Berlin’s price out to clear underdog territory despite their slightly better season-long table position, indicating some reverse line movement toward the hosts.[1] Augsburg’s underlying numbers at home (chance creation and xG differential) have improved over the last month compared with their poor early-season record, while Union Berlin have been notably weaker away, with a negative goal difference and more conservative attacking metrics on the road.[1] With no major fresh injury news or extreme weather/referee concerns shifting the balance, home-field advantage plus recent performance trends point to Augsburg being more likely to win than their implied probability at 2.63 suggests. This creates a small but positive expected value on Augsburg to win rather than on the draw or Union Berlin.
AI-driven insights suggest this as the most probable outcome
Full Time Result
FC Augsburg