14 Jan 2026 | 12:30 AM
Nacional Montevideo VS Deportivo Maldonado Prediction
Market and sharp-action indicators across major books show heavy but not extreme public support on Nacional with no significant reverse line movement, suggesting the 1.48 price is close to but slightly above fair value. Recent xG and chance-creation metrics from the Clausura and early cup play rate Nacional clearly superior at home, while Deportivo Maldonado have underperformed away with low xG and defensive frailty against top domestic attacks. Injury and squad reports do not indicate key absences for Nacional, and historical head-to-head plus home/away splits strongly favor the hosts. My estimated true win probability for Nacional is roughly 72–74%, versus an implied ~67.6% at 1.48, giving a modest positive expected value on the home win rather than the draw or away upset.
AI-driven insights suggest this as the most probable outcome
Full Time Result
Nacional Montevideo