14 Jan 2026 | 07:45 PM
Heart of Midlothian FC VS St Mirren FC Prediction
Hearts have markedly stronger underlying numbers than St Mirren this season (higher xG created, lower xG conceded, and better home xPts), and Tynecastle has been a difficult venue where Hearts’ home win percentage is significantly above the 1.40 implied probability (~71%). Recent form and head‑to‑head meetings in Edinburgh tilt strongly toward Hearts, while St Mirren’s away attack has been among the weaker in the league on xG and shots created. No major fresh injury news or adverse weather/referee trends significantly benefit the underdog, and current market movement shows only modest support on St Mirren without meaningful reverse line movement. My estimated true win chance for Hearts is around 76–78%, making 1.40 a small but positive‑EV, low‑risk play on the home side.
AI-driven insights suggest this as the most probable outcome
Full Time Result
Heart of Midlothian FC