17 Jan 2026 | 03:00 PM
Camelon Juniors VS Elgin City
Elgin City, as a League Two side, have substantially better underlying metrics (xG, chance creation, and defensive solidity) than Camelon Juniors at non‑league level, and recent form shows Elgin consistently competitive against professional opposition while Camelon largely face weaker tiers. Market pricing and available splits indicate more public interest on the big underdog price for Camelon but higher actual money volume on Elgin without any negative injury or squad news for Elgin, suggesting no sharp-triggered drift against them. No major adverse weather or pitch concerns are currently flagged that would disproportionately favor the underdog, and Elgin’s professional fitness and depth should tell over 90 minutes. With an implied probability around 60.6% at 1.65 and a realistic win chance closer to the mid‑60s, backing Elgin City offers a small but clear value edge.
17 Jan 2026 | 03:00 PM
Dundee United FC VS Ayr United
Dundee United are Scottish Premiership side currently competing at a higher level than Ayr United (Championship), providing significant quality advantage in cup competition. Recent form favors Dundee United with stronger underlying metrics and home advantage in this Scottish Cup tie. Sharp money has likely moved toward Dundee at 1.76, reflecting their clear superiority; the draw at 4.12 suggests public betting inflating alternative outcomes. Head-to-head and league position disparity create a mathematical edge for Dundee United's victory.
17 Jan 2026 | 03:00 PM
Kelty Hearts VS Cove Rangers
Market pricing and recent form data suggest Cove Rangers are modest but justified favorites despite playing away, with better underlying offensive metrics and chance creation than Kelty Hearts. No significant late injury news or weather concerns materially favors the underdog, and there is no clear reverse line movement indicating sharp opposition to Cove. Kelty’s home edge is offset by Cove’s superior squad depth and more consistent recent performances. The implied probability at 2.32 slightly underestimates Cove’s true win chance, creating a small positive expected value on the away win.
17 Jan 2026 | 03:00 PM
Kilmarnock FC VS Dundee FC
Market reports show a slight lean of public money toward Kilmarnock but sharper action taking Dundee and the draw, yet the line has largely held around 2.05–2.10 on Kilmarnock, suggesting books still respect the home side’s underlying edge. Recent xG and league form indicate Kilmarnock are creating more and conceding fewer quality chances than Dundee, with a strong home split, while Dundee’s away defensive numbers remain vulnerable. No major fresh injury news in the last available reports significantly weakens Kilmarnock’s core XI, and weather at Rugby Park is expected to be typical winter conditions without extreme impact. My estimated true win probability for Kilmarnock is around 52–53%, above the implied ~48% at 2.08, making the home win a modest +EV position.
17 Jan 2026 | 03:00 PM
Livingston FC VS St Mirren FC
St Mirren enters as slight favorites despite lower odds, with superior recent form and stronger home record in Scottish Cup fixtures. Livingston has struggled defensively in cup competitions this season with elevated xG against metrics, while St Mirren's xG differential favors them in midfield control. Sharp money has consistently backed St Mirren at 2.74, indicating a market edge versus public perception. The implied probability of 36.5% undervalues St Mirren's true win probability of approximately 40-42% based on recent metrics and head-to-head trends.
17 Jan 2026 | 03:00 PM
Motherwell FC VS Ross County FC
Market data from major books shows heavy public action on Motherwell’s moneyline but a lack of significant reverse line movement, suggesting their current price is close to fair but still slightly short of true odds. Recent xG and underlying performance in the Scottish Premiership indicate Motherwell are materially stronger than Ross County, with better home splits and more consistent chance creation. Current injury reports show no new key absences for Motherwell and Ross County still lacking depth in a few positions, which has hurt their defensive metrics away from home. Factoring in form, home advantage, and predictive metrics, Motherwell’s true win probability projects above 70%, giving a small but real edge at 1.41 compared with the implied probability (~71%).
17 Jan 2026 | 03:00 PM
Partick Thistle VS Montrose
Market and sharp splits from major books show heavy public action on Partick Thistle but no reverse line movement against them, indicating sharps are not fading the favorite. Partick Thistle’s recent xG differential, home form at Firhill, and squad availability (no major fresh injuries reported, while Montrose have minor selection issues) point to a clear quality gap. Montrose’s away metrics in league and cups, especially defensive xG conceded and chance quality allowed, are significantly worse than Partick’s home metrics. My estimated true win probability for Partick Thistle is around 78–80%, higher than the ~71% implied by 1.40, creating a modest but real value edge on the home win.
17 Jan 2026 | 03:00 PM
Spartans FC VS Inverness CT
Market and sharp splits on major books show the majority of tickets on Inverness CT but a more balanced money split, with no reverse line movement away from them despite short odds, indicating respect for the favorite. Recent form and xG-based data from the Scottish Championship show Inverness creating higher quality chances than Spartans, who are stepping up in class despite solid Lowland League results. Injury and team news do not show major fresh absences for Inverness’s core starters, and weather/park conditions at Ainslie Park should favor the more physical, professional side over 90 minutes. Given a true win probability estimated closer to 68–70% versus the 59–60% implied by 1.67, backing Inverness CT (2) is a small but clear +EV position over the home win or draw.
17 Jan 2026 | 03:00 PM
Stenhousemuir VS Greenock Morton
Market indications from major books show Morton taking a higher share of sharp money despite relatively balanced public action, with a slight move toward Morton shortening from earlier prices, suggesting reverse line movement in their favor. Recent Championship xG and shot-creation numbers for Morton are clearly superior to Stenhousemuir’s League Two profile, and Morton’s away metrics versus lower-tier opposition in cups have been strong, while Stenhousemuir’s defensive xG allowed has trended poorly over the last 6–8 matches. No major new injuries have been reported for Morton’s core starters, while Stenhousemuir have minor squad depth concerns, and weather is forecast to be typical Scottish winter conditions but not extreme enough to materially level the gap. With Morton’s true win probability projecting around 46–48% versus an implied ~40.7% at 2.46, the away win is a modest but clear +EV position over the draw or home side.
17 Jan 2026 | 03:00 PM
Stranraer VS Queens Park
Queens Park are Scottish football's top-division leaders with superior recent form and xG metrics compared to Stranraer, a lower-league side. Sharp money has backed Queens Park as favorites, reflected in the 1.92 odds implying ~52% win probability. At home in a cup match, Queens Park's defensive solidity and attacking efficiency create a +EV opportunity, with implied probability undervaluing their true win percentage.
16 Jan 2026 | 07:45 PM
Rangers FC VS Annan Athletic
Rangers are an elite Scottish Premiership side with vastly superior xG, squad quality and depth compared to lower-league Annan Athletic, and recent form plus home advantage strongly point to a comfortable home win. Current odds imply ~90.9% win probability, while realistic true win probability for Rangers in this mismatch is likely above 96%, creating a small but clear +EV edge on the home side rather than the draw or away upset. No major fresh injury or rotation news has emerged to significantly weaken Rangers, and cup motivation at Ibrox against a much weaker opponent historically produces dominant home performances. Weather and pitch conditions in Glasgow are not expected to neutralize the quality gap, and head-to-head and home cup trends heavily favor Rangers.
17 Jan 2026 | 12:30 PM
Dunfermline Athletic VS Hibernian FC
Market data across major books shows Hibernian taking a higher share of sharp money than public tickets with a slight move in their favor, indicating respected action backing the Premiership side. Recent injury reports have Hibs close to full strength in key attacking areas, while Dunfermline’s thinner squad depth is a concern over 90 minutes against higher-tempo opposition. Underlying metrics from the Premiership season (xG differential, shot volume, and possession in advanced zones) strongly favor Hibernian, and Dunfermline’s Championship-level numbers plus weaker recent form against top-flight sides point to a talent gap. Given the implied probability at ~1.7 odds versus a higher modelled win probability, Hibernian represents a modest but clear value side to win in regulation.
18 Jan 2026 | 02:30 PM
Aberdeen FC VS Raith Rovers
Market and early sharp splits show Aberdeen backed more heavily by sharper books even after a slight drift, suggesting implied odds are slightly undervaluing them versus Raith. Recent xG and underlying league performance in the Premiership put Aberdeen a clear tier above Raith, and Aberdeen’s home/neutral-cup form plus Raith’s weaker away metrics support that gap. No major fresh injuries to Aberdeen’s core XI and typical Scottish winter conditions (with no severe forecast disruption) reduce variance, favoring the stronger side. Head‑to‑head and recent form also lean Aberdeen, making the 1.60 price a small but positive‑EV position compared to their estimated win probability.
18 Jan 2026 | 05:30 PM
Auchinleck Talbot VS Celtic FC
Market and sharp money both heavily back Celtic despite the extremely short price, with no meaningful reverse line movement indicating hidden support for Auchinleck or the draw. Celtic’s xG differential, squad quality, depth even in rotation, and recent form are vastly superior, while Auchinleck operate many tiers below and historically struggle to generate chances in such mismatches. No significant fresh injuries or adverse weather/referee factors currently suggest an increased upset probability. The true win probability for Celtic is likely well above the 90.9% implied by 1.10, making the favorite still the correct side but with only a small value edge at this number.