22 Feb 2026 | 06:00 PM
GD Estoril Praia VS Gil Vicente FC
Gil Vicente shows superior recent form with 3 wins in their last 5 matches compared to Estoril's 1 win and 3 losses, giving them a true win probability of ~42% versus the implied 38.5% at 2.60 odds. Head-to-head favors Gil Vicente, winning 2 of the last 3 meetings, including a 2-1 away victory at Estoril. No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours for either side, and advanced metrics indicate Gil Vicente's higher xG (1.65 vs 1.32 per game). Neutral weather and referee tendencies support value on the away win.
22 Feb 2026 | 08:30 PM
FC Porto VS Rio Ave FC
FC Porto is the dominant home favorite in Primeira Liga with superior xG differential and recent form compared to Rio Ave. Porto's implied win probability of 81.97% aligns closely with their underlying performance metrics and historical dominance in home matches. Rio Ave's 20.62 odds for an away victory reflect their poor away form and significant quality gap, offering no value at current market prices. The draw at 7.61 provides no mathematical edge given Porto's attacking superiority and Rio Ave's defensive limitations.
23 Feb 2026 | 08:15 PM
FC Famalicao VS Casa Pia AC
FC Famalicao is the clear home favorite in this Primeira Liga fixture and the market odds of 1.73 suggest strong backing. Famalicao has demonstrated superior form and consistency at home compared to Casa Pia AC's away record this season. The odds movement indicates sharp money supporting Famalicao, with minimal reverse line movement suggesting the market has accurately priced this matchup. Casa Pia AC struggles significantly on the road, making Famalicao's implied win probability of 57.8% a reliable +EV opportunity.