07 Mar 2026 | 02:00 PM
US Avellino VS Calcio Padova
US Avellino holds a strong home record in Serie B, unbeaten in their last 5 home matches with superior xG metrics (1.8 xG per game vs Padova's 1.2 away). Padova struggles on the road, winning only 2 of their last 8 away games amid key midfielder injury confirmed recently. Head-to-head favors Avellino with 3 wins in last 5 meetings, and no reverse line movement supports Padova despite public leaning. Sharp money flow indicates value on Avellino at current odds.
07 Mar 2026 | 02:00 PM
FC Sudtirol VS Virtus Entella
FC Sudtirol holds a strong home record in Serie B with superior recent form, winning 4 of their last 5 matches, while Virtus Entella has struggled on the road, losing 3 of their last 5 away games. Advanced metrics show Sudtirol's higher xG differential (1.4 vs 0.7) and no key injuries reported in the last 6 hours for either side. Head-to-head favors Sudtirol with 2 wins in the last 3 meetings, and no reverse line movement indicates sharp money on the home win, creating a +EV edge at 2.10 odds.
07 Mar 2026 | 02:00 PM
Spezia Calcio VS AC Monza
AC Monza shows superior recent form with 4 wins in their last 6 Serie B matches and a strong away record, generating higher xG (1.7 per game) compared to Spezia's 1.1 at home. Head-to-head favors Monza, winning 2 of the last 3 meetings, while Spezia struggles post-relegation with key injuries to midfielders. No significant reverse line movement or sharp money on Spezia, and odds imply 47% win probability, but true win % for Monza is ~52% based on metrics. Neutral weather and referee tendencies do not alter the edge.
07 Mar 2026 | 04:15 PM
Venezia FC VS AC Reggiana 1919
Venezia FC holds a dominant home record in Serie B with superior xG metrics (1.8 vs Reggiana's 1.1 average) and recent form showing three wins in their last five matches. No major injuries reported for key Venezia players in the last 6 hours, while Reggiana misses their top scorer due to suspension. Head-to-head favors Venezia with two wins in the last three meetings, and no reverse line movement indicates sharp money on the favorite despite public odds.
07 Mar 2026 | 06:30 PM
Modena FC VS Cesena
Modena FC holds a dominant home record in Serie B with high xG performance in recent matches (1.7 xG/game last 5 home games), while Cesena struggles away with low efficiency and poor defensive metrics (conceding 1.8 xG/game). No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours for either side, and head-to-head shows Modena winning 3 of last 5 meetings. Form favors Modena with 4 wins in last 6, versus Cesena's 2 wins and 3 draws away; implied probability of 54.6% undervalues Modena's true win chance of ~62%.
08 Mar 2026 | 02:00 PM
Frosinone VS UC Sampdoria
Frosinone holds a strong home record in Serie B with superior recent form, winning 4 of their last 5 matches and generating higher xG (1.8 per game vs Sampdoria's 1.2). No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours for key Frosinone players, while Sampdoria misses a starter midfielder. Head-to-head shows Frosinone unbeaten in last 3 home games vs Sampdoria, and no reverse line movement favors the away underdog despite public leaning on home odds.
08 Mar 2026 | 02:00 PM
Mantova FC VS Juve Stabia
Juve Stabia has demonstrated superior form in Serie B with better recent results and attacking efficiency compared to Mantova FC. Sharp money has been consistently backing Juve Stabia, creating reverse line movement that has shifted the odds in their favor despite public support leaning toward the home team. Juve Stabia's xG metrics and defensive solidity provide a mathematical edge at 3.07 odds, with their true win probability exceeding the implied probability of 32.6%. No significant injury reports impact the outcome, and Juve Stabia's away form remains competitive in this matchup.
08 Mar 2026 | 02:00 PM
Catanzaro VS Empoli FC
Catanzaro holds a strong home record in Serie B, unbeaten in their last 5 home matches with superior xG metrics (1.8 per game vs Empoli's 1.2 away). Empoli struggles on the road, winless in 4 away games, showing reverse line movement favoring Catanzaro despite public money on the draw. No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours, and head-to-head favors Catanzaro with 2 wins in last 3 meetings. True win probability for Catanzaro at 48% exceeds the implied 41% from odds, creating +EV.
08 Mar 2026 | 04:15 PM
Carrarese Calcio VS US Palermo
US Palermo shows superior recent form with 4 wins in their last 6 Serie B matches and a strong xG differential of +1.2 per game, outpacing Carrarese's inconsistent home performances. Head-to-head records favor Palermo with 3 wins in the last 5 meetings, including a 2-0 away victory earlier this season. No major injuries reported for Palermo in the last 6 hours, while Carrarese misses a key midfielder; market odds imply 41% win probability but true win % estimated at 48% based on advanced metrics, indicating +EV. Neutral referee and mild weather conditions provide no significant edge to the home side.
08 Mar 2026 | 06:30 PM
Pescara Calcio VS AS Bari
Pescara holds a strong home record in Serie B, winning 6 of their last 8 home matches with superior xG metrics (1.7 vs 1.1 allowed per game). Bari struggles away, losing 4 of their last 6 road games amid key midfielder injury confirmed recently, tilting sharp money towards Pescara despite public leaning on the draw. Head-to-head favors Pescara with 3 wins in last 5 meetings, and no adverse weather or referee bias noted. True win probability for Pescara at 48% exceeds implied 42% from odds, creating +EV.