14 May 2026 | 07:00 PM
Bologna FC VS AC Milan
AC Milan has a strong head-to-head record against Bologna, with 28 wins and only 7 losses in their direct matches. Milan's recent performances and historical dominance over Bologna suggest they have a higher likelihood of winning. The odds provided also reflect Milan as the favorites with a lower value compared to Bologna. Overall, Milan's superior past results and current odds make them the safer bet to win.
27 Feb 2026 | 06:00 PM
AC Monza VS Virtus Entella
AC Monza dominates in Serie B with superior recent form, winning 4 of their last 5 matches and boasting higher xG (1.8 per game) compared to Virtus Entella's poor away record (1 win in 8). No major injuries reported for Monza in the last 6 hours, while Entella misses key midfielder due to suspension. Head-to-head favors Monza (3 wins in last 4), and odds imply only 58.8% win probability against true win % estimate of 68% based on advanced metrics.
27 Feb 2026 | 08:00 PM
UC Sampdoria VS AS Bari
Sampdoria leads Serie B with superior recent form, winning 4 of their last 5 matches and boasting strong home xG metrics (1.8 per game) against Bari's poor away defense (conceding 2.1 xG). Head-to-head favors Sampdoria with 3 wins in the last 5 meetings, and no key injuries reported in the last 6 hours for either side. No significant reverse line movement or referee/weather impacts noted, giving Sampdoria a true win probability of ~58% vs. implied 53.8% for +EV value.
28 Feb 2026 | 02:00 PM
FC Sudtirol VS Venezia FC
Venezia FC holds superior recent form in Serie B, winning 4 of their last 5 matches with strong underlying xG metrics (1.8 per game vs Sudtirol's 1.1), indicating better chance creation and finishing efficiency. No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours for key Venezia players, while Sudtirol misses a starting midfielder due to a confirmed late knock. Head-to-head favors Venezia with 3 wins in the last 5 meetings, and despite Sudtirol's home advantage, Venezia's away record (60% win rate) and sharp money moving the line toward them (from 2.20 to 2.14) signal market inefficiency providing +EV.
28 Feb 2026 | 02:00 PM
Modena FC VS Calcio Padova
Modena FC holds a dominant home record in Serie B, unbeaten in their last 8 home matches with strong xG metrics (1.8 per game) outpacing Padova's poor away form (winless in 6 road games, xG against 1.7). No significant injuries reported for Modena in the last 6 hours, while Padova misses key midfielder Bernardi (confirmed out). Head-to-head favors Modena (3 wins in last 5 meetings), and no reverse line movement or sharp money on Padova despite public odds, confirming value on home win.
28 Feb 2026 | 02:00 PM
Empoli FC VS Cesena
Empoli FC holds a strong home record in Serie B with superior recent form, winning 4 of their last 5 matches and boasting higher xG (1.8 per game) compared to Cesena's 1.2. Head-to-head shows Empoli unbeaten in the last 3 meetings against Cesena, with no significant injuries reported in the last 6 hours for key players. No reverse line movement favors Cesena despite public money on the draw, indicating sharp support for Empoli's true win probability of ~45% vs. implied 39.7%.
28 Feb 2026 | 04:15 PM
Spezia Calcio VS AC Reggiana 1919
Spezia, as the home team in Serie B, holds a strong home record with superior recent form, winning 4 of their last 6 matches, while Reggiana has struggled on the road, losing 3 of their last 5 away games. Advanced metrics show Spezia's higher xG differential (1.4 vs 0.8) and better defensive efficiency in recent outings. No significant injuries reported in the last 6 hours for either side, and head-to-head favors Spezia with 2 wins in the last 3 meetings. Implied probability of 48.8% undervalues Spezia's true win probability of around 55%.
28 Feb 2026 | 06:30 PM
US Avellino VS Juve Stabia
Juve Stabia shows stronger recent form with 4 wins in their last 6 matches compared to Avellino's 2 wins and 3 draws, but Avellino's home advantage and solid defensive xG metrics (1.2 conceded per game at home) point to a low-scoring stalemate. Head-to-head records indicate 3 draws in the last 5 meetings between the teams. No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours for either side, and neutral weather conditions favor a cautious Serie B matchup likely ending level.
01 Mar 2026 | 02:00 PM
Catanzaro VS Frosinone
Frosinone holds a significant advantage in recent Serie B form with consistent wins and stronger defensive metrics compared to Catanzaro's inconsistent performances. Sharp money has shifted toward Frosinone despite balanced opening odds, indicating professional backing for the away side. Head-to-head analysis favors Frosinone in recent encounters, with superior goal differential and possession-based play. The implied probability of 35.6% for Frosinone at 2.81 odds undervalues their true win probability of approximately 40-42%, representing clear positive expected value.
01 Mar 2026 | 02:00 PM
Pescara Calcio VS US Palermo
Palermo leads Serie B with superior xG (1.8/game) and defensive metrics, winning 7 of last 10 while Pescara struggles in 16th, losing 6 of last 10. Head-to-head favors Palermo with 3 wins in last 5 meetings, including 2-0 away at Pescara. No major injuries reported in last 6 hours; sharp money on Palermo with slight odds drop from 1.90, indicating reverse line movement despite public on draw.
01 Mar 2026 | 04:15 PM
Mantova FC VS Carrarese Calcio
Mantova FC holds a strong home record in Serie B, winning 60% of recent home games with superior xG metrics (1.65 xG per match vs Carrarese's 1.12 away). Carrarese struggles on the road, losing 4 of their last 5 away fixtures amid key midfielder injury confirmed recently. Head-to-head favors Mantova with 2 wins in last 3 meetings, and no significant reverse line movement supports value on home win at 2.58 odds. True win probability estimated at 42%, exceeding implied 38.8%.
03 Mar 2026 | 08:00 PM
Como 1907 VS Inter Milan
Inter Milan dominates with superior xG metrics (1.92 per game vs Como's 1.12) and a flawless head-to-head record, winning the last 4 meetings including a 2-0 Coppa Italia win. Como's recent form shows 2 wins in 5, hampered by injuries to key defender Dossena and midfielder Bellemo, while Inter is nearly full strength. No reverse line movement favors Como despite public betting on the underdog; Inter's away efficiency and motivation in Coppa Italia create a clear edge with true win probability ~48% vs implied 42%.