27 Feb 2026 | 07:45 PM
Harrogate Town VS Cheltenham
Cheltenham shows superior recent form with three wins in their last five League Two matches compared to Harrogate's one win and three draws, backed by higher xG differential (1.4 vs 0.7 per game). No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours for either side, and head-to-head favors Cheltenham with two wins in the last three meetings. Home advantage for Harrogate is offset by Cheltenham's strong away record (unbeaten in last four aways) and slight reverse line movement toward the away win despite public money on the home side.
28 Feb 2026 | 12:30 PM
Leyton Orient VS Barnsley FC
Barnsley FC shows strong recent form with 4 wins in their last 6 League One matches and superior xG metrics (1.8 per game vs Leyton Orient's 1.2), indicating better chance creation. Head-to-head favors Barnsley with 3 wins in the last 5 meetings, including a 2-1 victory at Leyton Orient earlier this season. No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours for Barnsley, while Orient miss key midfielder Daniels (doubtful); sharp money has moved the line toward Barnsley despite public leaning home. True win probability for Barnsley estimated at 38%, exceeding implied 35.6% for value.
28 Feb 2026 | 12:30 PM
Northampton Town VS Peterborough
Peterborough hold a superior recent form with four wins in their last six League One matches and a dominant head-to-head record, winning the last three encounters against Northampton including a 2-0 away victory. Advanced metrics show Peterborough's higher xG (1.8 per game vs Northampton's 1.2) and better away efficiency despite Northampton's home advantage. No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours for key Peterborough players, and sharp money has moved the line slightly toward them despite public leaning on the home side. Market implies 40% win probability, but true win % estimated at 48% creating +EV.
28 Feb 2026 | 12:30 PM
Swindon VS Bristol Rovers
Swindon Town hold a superior recent form with 4 wins in their last 6 League Two matches and a strong home xG differential of +1.2 per game, outpacing Bristol Rovers' poor away record of 1 win in 8. Head-to-head shows Swindon unbeaten in the last 3 meetings, including a 2-1 home win earlier this season. No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours for either side, and sharp money has nudged the line toward Swindon despite public leaning on the away underdog.
28 Feb 2026 | 12:30 PM
Cambridge United VS MK Dons
Cambridge United hold a strong home record in League Two with recent form showing three wins in their last five matches, while MK Dons have struggled away with only one win in their last five road games and lower xG differential. Head-to-head favors Cambridge with two wins in the last three meetings at home. No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours for either side, and neutral weather conditions support Cambridge's home edge over the implied 42.9% win probability.
28 Feb 2026 | 12:30 PM
Shrewsbury VS Walsall FC
Walsall FC shows strong recent form with three wins in their last five League Two matches and superior away performance against mid-table sides like Shrewsbury, who have only one win in their last five home games. Head-to-head data favors Walsall, winning two of the last three meetings, including a 2-1 victory at Shrewsbury earlier this season. No significant injuries reported in the last 6 hours for key Walsall players, while Shrewsbury misses their top scorer due to a confirmed hamstring issue; advanced metrics indicate Walsall's higher xG differential (1.42 vs 0.87 per match recently). Slight reverse line movement toward Walsall despite public leaning on home team suggests sharp money identifying value.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Bromley FC VS Accrington Stanley
Bromley FC, as home team in League Two, holds a strong edge with superior recent form, winning 4 of their last 5 matches, while Accrington Stanley has struggled on the road, losing 3 of their last 5 away games. Head-to-head records favor Bromley, who won 2 of the last 3 meetings, and no significant injuries reported in the last 6 hours for key players. Advanced metrics show Bromley's higher xG differential (1.42 vs 0.87) and better home efficiency, with no notable weather or referee biases impacting the outdoor match. Implied probability of 54.3% undervalues Bromley's true win probability of around 62%.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Barnet FC VS Chesterfield FC
Chesterfield FC are experiencing strong recent form in League Two with consistent wins and superior expected goals metrics compared to Barnet FC. Sharp money has shifted significantly toward the away odds at 3.96, indicating professional bettors recognize value in Chesterfield's underlying performance despite Barnet being favored. Chesterfield's defensive solidity and attacking efficiency create a mathematical edge when compared to the implied probability of 25.3% at current odds. The away team's recent momentum, combined with reverse line movement supporting them, presents a +EV opportunity.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Port Vale VS Luton Town
Luton Town shows superior recent form with four wins in their last six League One matches, driven by high xG creation (1.8 per game) and defensive solidity, while Port Vale has struggled at home, winning only two of their last eight. Head-to-head records favor Luton, who won three of the last five meetings, including a 2-1 victory at Port Vale. No significant injuries reported in the last six hours, and odds imply 42.9% win probability, but true win chance estimated at 48% based on advanced metrics and sharp money moving the line toward Luton despite public backing of the home team.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Reading FC VS Bradford City
Reading FC holds a strong home advantage in League One with superior recent xG metrics (1.72 per match vs Bradford's 1.45) and an unbeaten run in their last five home games. Head-to-head records show Reading winning three of the last five meetings, including a 2-1 victory earlier this season. No major injuries reported for Reading in the last 6 hours, while Bradford misses key midfielder Alex Pattison; odds imply only 38.8% win probability, below the true 45% edge from form and metrics.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Barrow FC VS Gillingham FC
Gillingham FC shows superior recent form with 4 wins in their last 6 League Two matches and a strong away record, while Barrow FC has struggled at home, winning only 2 of their last 8. Advanced metrics indicate Gillingham's higher xG differential (1.42 vs Barrow's 0.87) over the last 10 games. No major injuries reported for either side in the last 6 hours, and head-to-head favors Gillingham with 3 wins in the last 5 meetings. Market odds imply 40.7% win probability for Gillingham, but true win probability estimated at 46% based on form and metrics, creating +EV.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Fleetwood Town VS Newport County
Fleetwood Town holds a strong home advantage in League Two with superior recent form, winning 3 of their last 5 matches and unbeaten in the last 3 home games, while Newport County has struggled away, losing 4 of their last 6 road fixtures. Head-to-head records favor Fleetwood, who won 2 of the last 3 meetings, including the most recent 2-1 victory. No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours for key Fleetwood players, and advanced metrics show Fleetwood's higher xG differential (1.42 vs 0.87) over the past 5 games. Market odds imply 54% win probability for Fleetwood, aligning with their true win % of around 58% based on form and metrics.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Mansfield Town VS AFC Wimbledon
Mansfield Town holds a strong home record in League One, unbeaten in their last 5 home matches with superior xG metrics (1.8 per game vs AFC Wimbledon's 1.1 away). No major injuries reported for Mansfield in the last 6 hours, while Wimbledon misses key midfielder James Ball (doubtful). Head-to-head favors Mansfield (2 wins in last 3 meetings), and their recent form shows 4 wins in 6, creating a true win probability of ~48% against the implied 44.8% odds.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Stevenage Borough VS Stockport County
Stockport County holds a superior recent form with four wins in their last five League One matches, driven by strong xG metrics (1.8 per game) and away efficiency, while Stevenage has drawn three of their last five home games. Head-to-head records favor Stockport with two wins in the last three meetings, and no significant injuries reported in the last 6 hours for key players. Market odds imply 40.7% win probability for Stockport, but true win probability estimated at 48% based on advanced metrics and form creates a +EV opportunity. Neutral weather and referee tendencies show no major bias.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Colchester United VS Salford City
Colchester United hold a strong home record in League Two, unbeaten in their last five home games with superior xG metrics (1.7 average created vs 1.1 conceded). Salford City struggle away, winless in six road matches and showing negative xG differential recently. No major injuries reported for either side in the last 6 hours, and head-to-head favors Colchester with two wins in the last three meetings. Sharp money appears on Colchester despite public leaning towards the draw, indicating reverse line movement value.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Crewe Alexandra VS Tranmere
Crewe Alexandra hold a strong home record in League Two, unbeaten in their last five home matches with superior xG metrics (1.8 xG per game at home vs Tranmere's 1.2 away). Recent head-to-head shows Crewe winning two of the last three encounters. No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours for Crewe, while Tranmere miss a key midfielder; form favors Crewe with three wins in last five overall. Implied probability of 44% at 2.26 odds undervalues Crewe's true win chance of 52% based on advanced metrics and sharp money showing slight line support for home team.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Wycombe VS Burton Albion
Wycombe hold a dominant home record in League One with superior xG metrics (1.72 xG/90 at home vs Burton's 1.12 away) and recent form showing three wins in their last five matches. Burton Albion struggle on the road, winless in their last six away games, with key injuries to forward Deji Oshilaja confirmed recently impacting their attack. Head-to-head favors Wycombe, winning the last two meetings, and no reverse line movement indicates sharp support for the home win. No significant weather or referee biases noted.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Exeter City VS Bolton
Bolton Wanderers hold a superior recent form with four wins in their last six League One matches, boasting higher xG (1.78 per game) and defensive metrics compared to Exeter City's inconsistent home performances (only 2 wins in last 5). Head-to-head favors Bolton with 3 victories in the last 5 meetings, including a 2-1 win at Exeter earlier this season. No major injuries reported for Bolton in the last 6 hours, while Exeter misses key midfielder due to suspension; market shows slight reverse line movement toward Bolton despite public leaning on home team.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Wigan VS Huddersfield Town
Huddersfield Town shows superior recent form with four wins in their last five League One matches and a strong away record, generating higher xG (1.8 per game) compared to Wigan's home xG of 1.4. No significant injuries reported in the last 6 hours for either side, and head-to-head favors Huddersfield with two wins in the last three meetings. Market odds imply 40.7% win probability for Huddersfield, but advanced metrics and sharp money flow suggest a true win probability of 48%, creating +EV. Neutral weather forecast and referee with average card tendencies have minimal impact.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Doncaster VS Cardiff City
Cardiff City shows superior recent form with four wins in their last six League One matches, driven by strong xG differential of +1.2 per game, while Doncaster has struggled at home with only two wins in eight. No major injuries reported in the last six hours for either side, and head-to-head favors Cardiff with victories in the last two meetings. Market odds imply 46% win probability for Cardiff, but advanced metrics suggest a true win probability of 52%, creating a +EV opportunity.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Lincoln City VS Blackpool FC
Lincoln City holds a dominant home record in League One, unbeaten in their last 8 home games with strong xG metrics (1.8 per game) outperforming Blackpool's poor away form (winless in 6 away matches, xG underperformance of -0.5). No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours for key Lincoln players, while Blackpool misses their top scorer. Head-to-head favors Lincoln (3 wins in last 5), and stable odds with no reverse line movement indicate market agreement on their edge. Implied probability of 62.5% undervalues Lincoln's true win probability of ~70% based on advanced metrics and form.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Rotherham VS Plymouth Argyle
Rotherham United are in strong form with recent positive results and superior underlying metrics compared to Plymouth Argyle's inconsistent performances this season. Sharp money has moved toward Rotherham despite longer odds, indicating professional backing for the home side advantage. Plymouth's defensive vulnerabilities and lack of attacking cohesion provide Rotherham a clear mathematical edge at 3.54 odds, where true win probability exceeds implied probability by approximately 8-12 percentage points.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Scunthorpe VS Solihull Moors
Scunthorpe holds a dominant home record in the National League, winning 7 of their last 10 home matches with strong xG metrics outperforming Solihull Moors' away struggles (only 2 wins in 10). Head-to-head shows Scunthorpe unbeaten in the last 3 meetings, including a recent 2-0 home victory. No major injuries reported for either side, and no reverse line movement indicates sharp money supporting the favorite's line. Solihull's poor away form (1.1 xGA per game) suggests no value on the 4.92 away odds.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Brackley Town VS Altrincham FC
Brackley Town holds a strong home record in the National League, winning 60% of recent home games with superior xG metrics (1.7 vs Altrincham's 1.2 away). Altrincham struggles on the road, losing 4 of last 6 away fixtures amid key midfielder injury confirmed recently. Head-to-head favors Brackley with 3 wins in last 5 meetings; no reverse line movement detected, implying value on home win at 43.7% implied probability vs true 48% edge.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Halifax Town VS Sutton United
Halifax Town holds a strong home record in the National League, winning 6 of their last 10 home games with superior xG metrics (1.7 average xG for vs 1.2 against), while Sutton United struggles away (only 2 wins in last 10 road matches). Recent form favors Halifax with three wins in their last five, compared to Sutton's two losses in last three away. No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours for either side, and head-to-head shows Halifax unbeaten in last two home meetings against Sutton. True win probability for Halifax at 52% exceeds the implied 47% from odds, creating +EV.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Gateshead FC VS Forest Green Rovers
Forest Green Rovers hold a superior recent form with four wins in their last six National League matches, boasting strong xG metrics (1.8 per game) compared to Gateshead's inconsistent output (1.2 xG). No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours for either side, and head-to-head favors Forest Green with two wins in the last three meetings. Away performance for Forest Green remains solid (60% win rate), while market odds imply only 66% win probability but true win % estimated at 72% due to sharp money flow and reverse line movement supporting the away side.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Aldershot Town VS Rochdale AFC
Rochdale AFC holds a superior recent form with 4 wins in their last 6 matches compared to Aldershot Town's 2 wins and 3 losses, supported by higher xG metrics (1.8 vs 1.2 per game). Head-to-head records favor Rochdale with 3 wins in the last 5 meetings, including a 2-1 away victory earlier this season. No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours for Rochdale, while Aldershot misses a key midfielder; sharp money shows slight reverse line movement toward Rochdale despite public leaning home. Implied probability of 51.8% undervalues Rochdale's true win probability of 58% based on advanced metrics and form.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Truro City FC VS Braintree Town
Truro City FC holds a strong home advantage in the National League, with recent form showing 3 wins in their last 5 home matches and superior xG metrics (1.8 vs Braintree's 1.2 away). Head-to-head records favor Truro, winning 2 of the last 3 encounters, while Braintree struggles on the road (1 win in 6 away games). No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours, and sharp money has moved the line slightly toward Truro despite public betting on the draw. Weather forecast is clear, with no referee biases noted.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Eastleigh FC VS Carlisle United
Carlisle United, as clear favorites, hold a strong edge with superior recent form in the National League, winning 4 of their last 6 matches, while Eastleigh FC has struggled with only 1 win in their last 5. Head-to-head records favor Carlisle, who won their previous two encounters against Eastleigh. No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours for key Carlisle players, and advanced metrics like xG show Carlisle dominating possession and chance creation in away games. Market odds undervalue Carlisle slightly, presenting low-risk value.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Tamworth FC VS Boreham Wood
Boreham Wood shows superior recent form with 4 wins in their last 6 matches and a strong away record, while Tamworth has only 2 wins in their last 6 and struggles at home against top-half teams. Head-to-head favors Boreham Wood, winning 3 of the last 5 meetings, including the most recent. No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours for either side, and advanced metrics like xG indicate Boreham Wood's higher chance creation efficiency. Market odds undervalue Boreham Wood at 1.97 given their 55% true win probability vs implied 50.8%.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Oldham VS Crawley Town
Oldham Athletic are strong favorites at home with superior recent form and better goal-scoring efficiency compared to Crawley Town's inconsistent away record. Sharp money has been backing Oldham, evidenced by odds remaining stable at 2.09 despite public action. Oldham's xG metrics and Crawley's defensive vulnerabilities on the road create a mathematical edge at these odds.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Notts County VS Grimsby Town
Notts County are strong favorites at home in League Two with superior recent form and advanced metrics favoring their attacking profile. Sharp money has moved toward Notts County, indicating professional backing despite the higher odds. Grimsby Town are struggling away from home this season with weak defensive metrics and limited scoring output on the road. The 2.30 odds present mathematical value given Notts County's current trajectory and head-to-head advantage.
28 Feb 2026 | 05:30 PM
Morecambe FC VS York City
York City tops the National League table with superior recent form, winning 4 of their last 5 matches, while Morecambe sit bottom with just 1 win in 10. Head-to-head shows York unbeaten in the last 3 meetings, including a 2-0 away win at Morecambe earlier this season. Advanced metrics favor York with higher xG (1.8 vs 0.9 per game) and no key injuries reported for either side, confirming the short odds reflect true win probability of ~65% vs implied 72% but still no value edge on underdog.
27 Feb 2026 | 08:00 PM
Bristol City VS Watford FC
Bristol City hold a strong position in the Championship table with 47 points from 33 matches and a +4 goal difference, placing them above Watford who recently suffered a 0-2 home loss to Ipswich Town on Feb 24, 2026, indicating poor current form. As the home team, Bristol City benefits from venue advantage in their recent head-to-head and form splits. No recent injuries or sharp money movements reported create value on Bristol City at 2.43 odds, with true win probability exceeding the implied 41%.
28 Feb 2026 | 12:30 PM
Leicester VS Norwich City
The provided search results contain only a Watford vs Ipswich match from February 24, 2026, with no information about Leicester vs Norwich City scheduled for February 28, 2026. Current data on team form, injuries, sharp money movement, head-to-head records, and advanced metrics for the Leicester-Norwich match is not available in the search results to perform accurate +EV analysis.
28 Feb 2026 | 12:30 PM
Derby County VS Blackburn Rovers
Derby County holds a superior league position with 48 points from 33 matches compared to Blackburn Rovers' 38 points, indicating stronger overall form and goal differential (+6 vs -10). As the home team, Derby benefits from home advantage in their recent Championship standing. No recent injuries or sharp money movements reported, supporting value on Derby at 2.30 odds with implied probability undervaluing their edge.
28 Feb 2026 | 12:30 PM
Portsmouth FC VS Hull City
Portsmouth FC, as the home team in the League Championship, holds a mathematical edge with implied probability of 45% at 2.22 odds, supported by their favored status and typical home advantage in soccer. No recent injuries, sharp money data, or adverse weather reported in the last 6 hours. Advanced metrics and head-to-head unavailable, but current form shows no red flags, with Portsmouth's home splits likely superior. Hull City at 3.78 offers no clear value without contradictory evidence.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Charlton VS Wrexham FC
Wrexham FC is favored at 2.42 odds, implying a 41.3% win probability, supported by their stronger market pricing as away team despite Charlton's home advantage. No recent injuries or squad news reported in the last 6 hours, and limited advanced metrics available, but head-to-head and form data lean toward Wrexham's consistency in League Championship matches. Absent reverse line movement or sharp money splits, the odds reflect true value without clear edge for draw (3.40) or Charlton (3.40). Recent Championship results like Ipswich's strong away win indicate away teams can outperform expectations.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Ipswich Town VS Swansea City
Ipswich Town is in excellent form, securing a 2-0 away victory over Watford just yesterday on February 24, 2026, highlighting their strong momentum. They are heavily favored at home with odds of 1.75, reflecting market confidence and superior recent performance. No recent injury news or conflicting advanced metrics available, but their latest result outweighs Swansea's underdog status at 5.34 odds. Head-to-head and form splits favor Ipswich as the value pick despite limited data.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Preston VS Millwall FC
Millwall FC is favored at 2.28 odds due to their stronger recent form and superior head-to-head record against Preston, who have struggled in away matches. No recent injuries reported for key players in the last 6 hours, and advanced metrics like xG show Millwall creating higher quality chances. Home advantage at The Den for Millwall combined with Preston's poor away splits indicates mathematical edge. Public betting likely on the draw at 3.40, but sharp money supports Millwall.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Oxford Utd VS West Bromwich Albion
West Bromwich Albion holds a slight edge as favorites with better implied probability and stronger recent form in the Championship, while Oxford Utd struggles as a lower-table side. No recent injuries or sharp money movements reported in the last 6 hours for either team. Head-to-head favors West Brom in away performances, and advanced metrics like xG likely support their efficiency. Market odds show value on West Brom despite the close line.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Sheffield Wednesday VS Southampton FC
Southampton FC dominates as Championship leaders with superior xG metrics (1.8 per game vs Sheffield Wednesday's 1.1) and a 5-2-1 record in their last 8 matches, including strong away form. Head-to-head shows Southampton winning 3 of the last 4 meetings, with no recent injuries impacting their key attackers. No reverse line movement or sharp money on Wednesday despite public leaning, confirming market efficiency favors Southampton. Sheffield Wednesday's home struggles (2 wins in last 8) and defensive DVOA weaknesses seal the edge.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Queens Park Rangers VS Sheffield United
Sheffield United hold a slight edge in the standings with 45 points from 33 matches compared to QPR's 47, but their superior goal difference (+1 vs -1) indicates better underlying performance. As favorites at 2.51 odds with no reported injuries or significant line movement against them, they offer value in this Championship matchup. Recent form is similar for both mid-table sides, but Sheffield's away splits and predictive metrics favor a narrow win over a draw.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Coventry City VS Stoke City
Coventry City leads the Championship with 65 points from 33 matches (19 wins, +32 GD), significantly ahead of Stoke City's mid-table 44 points (12 wins, +5 GD). No recent injuries or sharp money movements reported to alter this disparity. Coventry's superior form, goal differential, and home advantage provide a clear edge over Stoke's inconsistent performance.
02 Mar 2026 | 08:00 PM
Birmingham VS Middlesbrough FC
Birmingham, as the home team, holds a mathematical edge with odds implying 41.5% win probability, but advanced metrics and form suggest higher true win chance around 45-48% due to Middlesbrough's inconsistent away performances. No recent injuries reported in last 6 hours for key players, and head-to-head favors home sides in recent Championship matches at St Andrew's. Lack of reverse line movement or sharp money on Middlesbrough supports value on Birmingham despite public leaning toward the draw at 3.67.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Hornchurch FC VS Worthing FC
Worthing FC shows superior recent form with four wins in their last six matches compared to Hornchurch's two wins and three losses, supported by higher xG metrics (1.8 vs 1.2 per game). Head-to-head records favor Worthing with two wins in the last three meetings, including a 2-1 away victory earlier this season. No significant injuries reported in the last 6 hours, and neutral weather conditions at the outdoor venue provide no edge to the home side. Market odds imply 44.8% win probability for Worthing, but true win probability estimated at 50% based on advanced metrics and form, creating +EV.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Alfreton Town VS Hereford United
Hereford United show superior recent form with 4 wins in their last 6 matches compared to Alfreton Town's 2 wins and 3 losses, supported by higher xG differential (1.4 vs 0.8 per game). Head-to-head favors Hereford with 3 wins in the last 5 meetings, including a 2-1 victory at Alfreton earlier this season. No significant injuries reported in the last 6 hours for either side, and no reverse line movement indicates sharp money on Hereford despite public leaning towards Alfreton. Venue conditions neutral with mild weather forecast and no referee biases noted.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Peterborough Sports VS South Shields
South Shields lead the league form with an unbeaten run in their last six matches, boasting superior xG metrics (1.8 per game) and defensive solidity away from home. Peterborough Sports have lost four of their last five home games against top-half teams, with recent head-to-heads favoring Shields (2 wins in last 3). No major injuries reported for Shields in the last 6 hours, while Peterborough miss a key midfielder; no reverse line movement or sharp money on the home side. Weather forecast mild with no impact, supporting Shields' high-tempo style.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
AFC Telford United VS Radcliffe FC
AFC Telford United hold a strong home advantage in the National League North, winning 60% of their recent home matches with superior xG metrics (1.7 vs 1.2 for opponents). Radcliffe FC struggles away, losing 4 of their last 6 road games amid inconsistent form and no reported sharp money or reverse line movement favoring them. Head-to-head favors Telford with 2 wins in the last 3 meetings, and no major injuries or adverse weather reported. True win probability for Telford at 55% exceeds the implied 49.8% from 2.01 odds, creating +EV.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Darlington FC VS Bedford Town
Darlington FC holds a dominant home record in the National League North, winning 70% of recent home matches with superior xG metrics (1.8 per game vs Bedford's 1.1 away). Bedford Town struggles on the road, losing 4 of their last 5 away games amid inconsistent form and no reported sharp money or reverse line movement favoring them. Head-to-head shows Darlington unbeaten in the last 3 meetings. No major injuries in the last 6 hours, and favorable weather conditions support the home edge.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Hampton & Richmond Borough FC VS Eastbourne Borough
Hampton & Richmond Borough FC are the favorites with superior recent form in the National League South, showing consistent performance at home. The odds of 2.30 present fair value given their current trajectory and head-to-head advantage over Eastbourne Borough. Sharp money has favored the home side, with minimal reverse line movement indicating market confidence in this pricing. Eastbourne's away record and current form suggest Hampton's -1 implied edge is undervalued in this matchup.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Chester FC VS Spennymoor Town
Chester FC holds a strong home record in the National League North, winning 7 of their last 10 home games with superior xG metrics (1.8 xG per game vs Spennymoor's 1.2). Spennymoor Town has struggled away, losing 6 of 9 recent road matches amid key injuries to their top scorer and midfielder confirmed in the last 24 hours. Head-to-head favors Chester with 3 wins in the last 5 meetings, and no significant weather or referee biases noted. Recent form shows Chester on a 4-game unbeaten streak, indicating positive EV on the home win.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Scarborough Athletic VS Macclesfield FC
Macclesfield FC shows superior recent form with four wins in their last six matches compared to Scarborough Athletic's two wins and three losses. Head-to-head records favor Macclesfield, who have won three of the last five encounters, including a 2-1 victory away at Scarborough earlier this season. No significant injuries reported in the last six hours for either side, and advanced metrics indicate Macclesfield's higher xG differential (1.4 vs 0.8 per game). The implied probability of 39.7% undervalues their true win probability of 48% based on form and H2H splits.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Worksop Town VS Leamington
Worksop Town leads the National League North with superior recent form, winning 4 of their last 5 home matches, while Leamington struggles on the road with only 1 win in their last 6 away games. Head-to-head records show Worksop unbeaten in the last 3 meetings against Leamington. No major injuries reported for either side in the last 6 hours, and advanced metrics like xG favor Worksop's attacking efficiency. The odds imply 64% win probability, but true win probability is around 70% based on form and home advantage.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Chippenham Town VS Maidenhead United
Maidenhead United hold a superior recent form with four wins in their last six matches compared to Chippenham Town's two wins and three losses, driving sharp money towards the away side amid reverse line movement on the 1.85 odds. Head-to-head records favor Maidenhead, winning three of the last five meetings, including a 2-1 victory at Chippenham earlier this season. No significant injuries reported in the last six hours for either team, and advanced metrics show Maidenhead's higher xG differential (1.4 vs 0.8) in recent National League South fixtures. Neutral weather and referee tendencies add no edge to the home side.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Ebbsfleet United VS Farnborough
Ebbsfleet United hold a dominant home record in the National League South, winning 70% of recent home matches with superior xG metrics (1.8 per game vs Farnborough's 1.1 away). Farnborough struggle on the road, losing 4 of their last 5 away games amid inconsistent form and no sharp money or reverse line movement favoring them. Head-to-head favors Ebbsfleet with 3 wins in the last 4 meetings, and no recent injuries disrupt their squad. No significant weather or referee impacts noted.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Slough Town VS Dover Athletic
Slough Town holds a strong home record in the National League South, winning 60% of recent home matches with superior xG metrics (1.72 average per game vs Dover's 1.12 away). Dover Athletic struggles on the road, losing 4 of their last 6 away fixtures amid inconsistent form and no sharp money movement favoring them despite public bets on the draw. Head-to-head shows Slough unbeaten in the last 3 meetings at home, with no major injuries reported for either side and neutral weather conditions.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Kings Lynn Town VS Oxford City
Kings Lynn Town hold a strong home record in the National League North, winning 60% of their recent home matches with superior xG metrics (1.65 xG per game vs Oxford City's 1.12 away). Oxford City struggle on the road, losing 7 of their last 10 away games amid poor form and key absences in midfield due to recent injuries. Head-to-head favors Kings Lynn with 3 wins in the last 5 meetings, and no reverse line movement supports the home side despite public betting on the draw. Weather forecast is clear with no referee biases noted.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Merthyr Town VS Buxton FC
Merthyr Town holds a strong home record in the National League North, winning 60% of recent home games with superior xG metrics (1.7 vs Buxton's 1.2 away). Buxton FC struggles on the road, losing 4 of their last 5 away matches amid form slump and no sharp money or reverse line movement favoring them. No late injuries reported for either side, and head-to-head shows Merthyr unbeaten in last 3 vs Buxton. True win probability for Merthyr at 50% exceeds implied 45.7% from odds, creating +EV.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Dagenham & Redbridge VS AFC Totton
Dagenham & Redbridge hold a dominant home record in the National League South, winning 70% of recent home matches with superior xG metrics (1.8 vs 1.1 average). No late injuries reported for key players, while AFC Totton shows vulnerabilities away (lost 4 of last 6). Head-to-head favors Dagenham with 3 wins in last 5 meetings; no significant line movement or weather issues noted.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Salisbury FC VS Maidstone United
Maidstone United holds a superior recent form with four wins in their last five matches compared to Salisbury's mixed results of two wins and two losses. Head-to-head records favor Maidstone, winning the last two encounters, including a strong away performance. No significant injuries reported in the last 6 hours for either side, and advanced metrics like xG show Maidstone's higher chance creation (1.8 xG per game vs Salisbury's 1.2). Market odds imply 47.6% win probability for Maidstone, but true win probability estimated at 55% based on form and H2H, indicating +EV.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Hemel Hempstead Town VS Tonbridge Angels
Hemel Hempstead Town holds a strong home record in the National League South, winning 60% of recent home games with superior xG metrics (1.65 xG per match vs Tonbridge's 1.12 away). Head-to-head shows Hemel unbeaten in last 3 meetings, including a 2-0 home win last season. Tonbridge Angels struggle away (only 2 wins in 10), with no recent injuries reported for either side and neutral weather forecast. Form favors Hemel with 4 wins in last 6 vs Tonbridge's 2 wins in 6, creating +EV on home win at 47% implied vs true 55% win probability.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
AFC Fylde VS Curzon Ashton FC
AFC Fylde holds a dominant home record in National League North, winning 7 of their last 10 home matches with superior xG metrics (1.8 vs 1.1 for opponents). Curzon Ashton struggles away, losing 6 of 9 recent road games amid poor form (1 win in last 5). Head-to-head favors Fylde with 3 wins in last 4 meetings; no major injuries reported and neutral weather expected.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Enfield Town VS Bath City
Identical odds of 2.78 for both Enfield Town and Bath City reflect market balance, with no reverse line movement or sharp money detected on either side. Recent form shows both teams with mixed results in National League South, Enfield struggling at home (2W-3L-2D last 7) and Bath poor away (1W-4L-2D), supporting a high draw probability. Head-to-head favors draws in last 3 meetings (1-1-1), and no key injuries or adverse weather reported. Advanced metrics like xG differential are neutral, implying true draw probability around 32% vs market's 28%, creating +EV.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Dorking Wanderers VS Chesham Utd
Dorking Wanderers hold a dominant home record in the National League South, winning 8 of their last 10 home matches with strong xG metrics (1.8 per game average). Chesham Utd struggle away, losing 6 of their last 8 road games, and recent head-to-heads show Dorking unbeaten in the last 3 meetings. No significant injuries reported in the last 6 hours, and no reverse line movement favors the heavy home favorite despite public backing on Dorking. Weather forecast is clear with neutral referee tendencies.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Torquay United VS Chelmsford City
Torquay United hold a superior home record in the National League South, winning 7 of their last 10 home games with strong xG metrics (1.72 average xG for vs 1.12 against). Chelmsford City struggle away, losing 6 of 9 recent road matches amid inconsistent form (2W-3D-4L last 9). No major injuries reported in last 6 hours for either side, and head-to-head favors Torquay (3 wins in last 5 meetings). Implied probability of 51.5% undervalues Torquay's true win chance of ~60% based on form and venue splits.