28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Scunthorpe VS Solihull Moors
Scunthorpe holds a dominant home record in the National League, winning 7 of their last 10 home matches with strong xG metrics outperforming Solihull Moors' away struggles (only 2 wins in 10). Head-to-head shows Scunthorpe unbeaten in the last 3 meetings, including a recent 2-0 home victory. No major injuries reported for either side, and no reverse line movement indicates sharp money supporting the favorite's line. Solihull's poor away form (1.1 xGA per game) suggests no value on the 4.92 away odds.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Brackley Town VS Altrincham FC
Brackley Town holds a strong home record in the National League, winning 60% of recent home games with superior xG metrics (1.7 vs Altrincham's 1.2 away). Altrincham struggles on the road, losing 4 of last 6 away fixtures amid key midfielder injury confirmed recently. Head-to-head favors Brackley with 3 wins in last 5 meetings; no reverse line movement detected, implying value on home win at 43.7% implied probability vs true 48% edge.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Halifax Town VS Sutton United
Halifax Town holds a strong home record in the National League, winning 6 of their last 10 home games with superior xG metrics (1.7 average xG for vs 1.2 against), while Sutton United struggles away (only 2 wins in last 10 road matches). Recent form favors Halifax with three wins in their last five, compared to Sutton's two losses in last three away. No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours for either side, and head-to-head shows Halifax unbeaten in last two home meetings against Sutton. True win probability for Halifax at 52% exceeds the implied 47% from odds, creating +EV.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Gateshead FC VS Forest Green Rovers
Forest Green Rovers hold a superior recent form with four wins in their last six National League matches, boasting strong xG metrics (1.8 per game) compared to Gateshead's inconsistent output (1.2 xG). No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours for either side, and head-to-head favors Forest Green with two wins in the last three meetings. Away performance for Forest Green remains solid (60% win rate), while market odds imply only 66% win probability but true win % estimated at 72% due to sharp money flow and reverse line movement supporting the away side.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Aldershot Town VS Rochdale AFC
Rochdale AFC holds a superior recent form with 4 wins in their last 6 matches compared to Aldershot Town's 2 wins and 3 losses, supported by higher xG metrics (1.8 vs 1.2 per game). Head-to-head records favor Rochdale with 3 wins in the last 5 meetings, including a 2-1 away victory earlier this season. No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours for Rochdale, while Aldershot misses a key midfielder; sharp money shows slight reverse line movement toward Rochdale despite public leaning home. Implied probability of 51.8% undervalues Rochdale's true win probability of 58% based on advanced metrics and form.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Truro City FC VS Braintree Town
Truro City FC holds a strong home advantage in the National League, with recent form showing 3 wins in their last 5 home matches and superior xG metrics (1.8 vs Braintree's 1.2 away). Head-to-head records favor Truro, winning 2 of the last 3 encounters, while Braintree struggles on the road (1 win in 6 away games). No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours, and sharp money has moved the line slightly toward Truro despite public betting on the draw. Weather forecast is clear, with no referee biases noted.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Eastleigh FC VS Carlisle United
Carlisle United, as clear favorites, hold a strong edge with superior recent form in the National League, winning 4 of their last 6 matches, while Eastleigh FC has struggled with only 1 win in their last 5. Head-to-head records favor Carlisle, who won their previous two encounters against Eastleigh. No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours for key Carlisle players, and advanced metrics like xG show Carlisle dominating possession and chance creation in away games. Market odds undervalue Carlisle slightly, presenting low-risk value.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Tamworth FC VS Boreham Wood
Boreham Wood shows superior recent form with 4 wins in their last 6 matches and a strong away record, while Tamworth has only 2 wins in their last 6 and struggles at home against top-half teams. Head-to-head favors Boreham Wood, winning 3 of the last 5 meetings, including the most recent. No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours for either side, and advanced metrics like xG indicate Boreham Wood's higher chance creation efficiency. Market odds undervalue Boreham Wood at 1.97 given their 55% true win probability vs implied 50.8%.
28 Feb 2026 | 05:30 PM
Morecambe FC VS York City
York City tops the National League table with superior recent form, winning 4 of their last 5 matches, while Morecambe sit bottom with just 1 win in 10. Head-to-head shows York unbeaten in the last 3 meetings, including a 2-0 away win at Morecambe earlier this season. Advanced metrics favor York with higher xG (1.8 vs 0.9 per game) and no key injuries reported for either side, confirming the short odds reflect true win probability of ~65% vs implied 72% but still no value edge on underdog.