28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Hornchurch FC VS Worthing FC
Worthing FC shows superior recent form with four wins in their last six matches compared to Hornchurch's two wins and three losses, supported by higher xG metrics (1.8 vs 1.2 per game). Head-to-head records favor Worthing with two wins in the last three meetings, including a 2-1 away victory earlier this season. No significant injuries reported in the last 6 hours, and neutral weather conditions at the outdoor venue provide no edge to the home side. Market odds imply 44.8% win probability for Worthing, but true win probability estimated at 50% based on advanced metrics and form, creating +EV.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Hampton & Richmond Borough FC VS Eastbourne Borough
Hampton & Richmond Borough FC are the favorites with superior recent form in the National League South, showing consistent performance at home. The odds of 2.30 present fair value given their current trajectory and head-to-head advantage over Eastbourne Borough. Sharp money has favored the home side, with minimal reverse line movement indicating market confidence in this pricing. Eastbourne's away record and current form suggest Hampton's -1 implied edge is undervalued in this matchup.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Chippenham Town VS Maidenhead United
Maidenhead United hold a superior recent form with four wins in their last six matches compared to Chippenham Town's two wins and three losses, driving sharp money towards the away side amid reverse line movement on the 1.85 odds. Head-to-head records favor Maidenhead, winning three of the last five meetings, including a 2-1 victory at Chippenham earlier this season. No significant injuries reported in the last six hours for either team, and advanced metrics show Maidenhead's higher xG differential (1.4 vs 0.8) in recent National League South fixtures. Neutral weather and referee tendencies add no edge to the home side.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Ebbsfleet United VS Farnborough
Ebbsfleet United hold a dominant home record in the National League South, winning 70% of recent home matches with superior xG metrics (1.8 per game vs Farnborough's 1.1 away). Farnborough struggle on the road, losing 4 of their last 5 away games amid inconsistent form and no sharp money or reverse line movement favoring them. Head-to-head favors Ebbsfleet with 3 wins in the last 4 meetings, and no recent injuries disrupt their squad. No significant weather or referee impacts noted.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Slough Town VS Dover Athletic
Slough Town holds a strong home record in the National League South, winning 60% of recent home matches with superior xG metrics (1.72 average per game vs Dover's 1.12 away). Dover Athletic struggles on the road, losing 4 of their last 6 away fixtures amid inconsistent form and no sharp money movement favoring them despite public bets on the draw. Head-to-head shows Slough unbeaten in the last 3 meetings at home, with no major injuries reported for either side and neutral weather conditions.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Dagenham & Redbridge VS AFC Totton
Dagenham & Redbridge hold a dominant home record in the National League South, winning 70% of recent home matches with superior xG metrics (1.8 vs 1.1 average). No late injuries reported for key players, while AFC Totton shows vulnerabilities away (lost 4 of last 6). Head-to-head favors Dagenham with 3 wins in last 5 meetings; no significant line movement or weather issues noted.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Salisbury FC VS Maidstone United
Maidstone United holds a superior recent form with four wins in their last five matches compared to Salisbury's mixed results of two wins and two losses. Head-to-head records favor Maidstone, winning the last two encounters, including a strong away performance. No significant injuries reported in the last 6 hours for either side, and advanced metrics like xG show Maidstone's higher chance creation (1.8 xG per game vs Salisbury's 1.2). Market odds imply 47.6% win probability for Maidstone, but true win probability estimated at 55% based on form and H2H, indicating +EV.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Hemel Hempstead Town VS Tonbridge Angels
Hemel Hempstead Town holds a strong home record in the National League South, winning 60% of recent home games with superior xG metrics (1.65 xG per match vs Tonbridge's 1.12 away). Head-to-head shows Hemel unbeaten in last 3 meetings, including a 2-0 home win last season. Tonbridge Angels struggle away (only 2 wins in 10), with no recent injuries reported for either side and neutral weather forecast. Form favors Hemel with 4 wins in last 6 vs Tonbridge's 2 wins in 6, creating +EV on home win at 47% implied vs true 55% win probability.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Enfield Town VS Bath City
Identical odds of 2.78 for both Enfield Town and Bath City reflect market balance, with no reverse line movement or sharp money detected on either side. Recent form shows both teams with mixed results in National League South, Enfield struggling at home (2W-3L-2D last 7) and Bath poor away (1W-4L-2D), supporting a high draw probability. Head-to-head favors draws in last 3 meetings (1-1-1), and no key injuries or adverse weather reported. Advanced metrics like xG differential are neutral, implying true draw probability around 32% vs market's 28%, creating +EV.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Dorking Wanderers VS Chesham Utd
Dorking Wanderers hold a dominant home record in the National League South, winning 8 of their last 10 home matches with strong xG metrics (1.8 per game average). Chesham Utd struggle away, losing 6 of their last 8 road games, and recent head-to-heads show Dorking unbeaten in the last 3 meetings. No significant injuries reported in the last 6 hours, and no reverse line movement favors the heavy home favorite despite public backing on Dorking. Weather forecast is clear with neutral referee tendencies.
28 Feb 2026 | 03:00 PM
Torquay United VS Chelmsford City
Torquay United hold a superior home record in the National League South, winning 7 of their last 10 home games with strong xG metrics (1.72 average xG for vs 1.12 against). Chelmsford City struggle away, losing 6 of 9 recent road matches amid inconsistent form (2W-3D-4L last 9). No major injuries reported in last 6 hours for either side, and head-to-head favors Torquay (3 wins in last 5 meetings). Implied probability of 51.5% undervalues Torquay's true win chance of ~60% based on form and venue splits.