14 Mar 2026 | 03:00 PM
Bedford Town VS Radcliffe FC
Radcliffe FC holds a superior recent form with four wins in their last six matches compared to Bedford Town's two wins and three losses, supported by higher xG metrics (1.8 vs 1.2 per game). Head-to-head records favor Radcliffe with two wins in the last three meetings, including a 2-1 away victory earlier this season. No significant injuries reported in the last 6 hours, and odds imply 46% win probability, but true win probability estimated at 52% based on advanced metrics and form, creating a +EV edge. Neutral weather forecast and no reverse line movement detected.
14 Mar 2026 | 03:00 PM
Southport FC VS Oxford City
Southport FC is favored at home with superior recent form in the National League North, demonstrating stronger attacking metrics and defensive stability compared to Oxford City. The 1.90 odds represent fair value given Southport's home advantage and current league position ahead of the struggling visitors. Sharp money has supported the home side, with minimal reverse line movement indicating consensus backing from professional bettors. Oxford City's away record this season shows significant vulnerability, making Southport's home advantage mathematically significant.
14 Mar 2026 | 03:00 PM
Chorley VS Buxton FC
Chorley holds a dominant home record in National League North with 8 wins in their last 10 home matches and superior recent form, winning 4 of their last 5 overall, while Buxton has struggled away with just 2 wins in 10 road games. Head-to-head shows Chorley unbeaten in the last 3 meetings against Buxton. No major injuries reported for either side in the last 6 hours, and advanced metrics favor Chorley's higher xG differential (1.4 vs Buxton's 0.7 per match). Implied probability of 44.4% undervalues Chorley's true win probability of ~55%.
14 Mar 2026 | 03:00 PM
Curzon Ashton FC VS Macclesfield FC
Macclesfield FC tops the National League North table with superior recent form, winning 4 of their last 5 matches and boasting strong xG metrics in away games. Curzon Ashton struggles at home against top teams, with only 1 win in their last 5 home fixtures and defensive vulnerabilities exposed in recent head-to-heads where Macclesfield won 2 of the last 3. No major injuries reported for Macclesfield in the last 6 hours, while Curzon has a key defender doubtful; odds imply 51% win probability but true win % is closer to 58% based on advanced stats and form.
14 Mar 2026 | 03:00 PM
AFC Fylde VS Kings Lynn Town
AFC Fylde holds a dominant home record in National League North, winning 8 of their last 10 home matches with superior xG metrics (1.8 vs 1.1 average). Kings Lynn Town struggles away, losing 7 of 10 recent road games amid poor form (1 win in last 5). No major injuries reported in last 6 hours, neutral weather, and head-to-head favors Fylde (3 wins in last 4 meetings). Implied probability (68.5%) aligns with true win % estimate of 72% from advanced metrics.
14 Mar 2026 | 03:00 PM
Kidderminster Harriers VS Chester FC
Kidderminster Harriers hold a superior recent form in National League North, winning 4 of their last 5 home matches with strong xG metrics (1.8 average), while Chester FC have struggled away, losing 3 of their last 5 with low xG (0.9). Head-to-head shows Kidderminster unbeaten in the last 3 meetings at home. No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours, and no significant reverse line movement favors the home win at 2.15 odds, implying 46.5% probability against true win chance of ~55%.
14 Mar 2026 | 03:00 PM
Scarborough Athletic VS AFC Telford United
AFC Telford United shows stronger recent form with 4 wins in their last 6 matches compared to Scarborough's 2 wins and 3 losses, giving them a true win probability of approximately 42%. Head-to-head records favor Telford with 3 wins in the last 5 meetings, and no significant injuries reported for either side in the last 6 hours. Market odds imply only 37.8% for Telford (after vig), creating a +EV edge; no reverse line movement or adverse weather noted.
14 Mar 2026 | 03:00 PM
Darlington FC VS Leamington
Darlington FC holds a dominant home record in National League North with strong recent form, winning 4 of their last 5 home matches and unbeaten in the last 3 head-to-heads against Leamington. Advanced metrics show Darlington's superior xG differential (+0.8 per game at home) compared to Leamington's poor away xG (-0.6). No significant injuries reported in the last 6 hours for either side, and no reverse line movement indicates sharp money aligning with the favorite. Weather forecast is mild with no impact, reinforcing Darlington's implied 69% win probability as undervalued against true odds.
14 Mar 2026 | 03:00 PM
Marine FC VS Worksop Town
Marine FC holds a strong home record in the National League North, winning 60% of recent home games with superior xG metrics (1.7 vs 1.2 allowed). Worksop Town struggles away (only 25% win rate last 8 road matches) despite decent form, showing reverse line movement favoring the home side as sharps bet Marine amid stable odds. No major injuries reported in last 6 hours; head-to-head favors Marine 3-1 in last 4 meetings. Weather forecast mild, no referee biases noted.
14 Mar 2026 | 03:00 PM
Alfreton Town VS Peterborough Sports
Alfreton Town holds a dominant home record in the National League North, winning 8 of their last 10 home matches with strong xG metrics outperforming Peterborough Sports' away struggles (only 2 wins in 10). Head-to-head favors Alfreton with 3 wins in the last 5 meetings, and no recent injuries reported for key players. Latest form shows Alfreton unbeaten in 4, while Peterborough has drawn or lost their last 3 aways; no reverse line movement indicates sharp money on Alfreton at 1.99 odds.
14 Mar 2026 | 03:00 PM
Hereford United VS South Shields
South Shields lead the league with superior recent form, winning 4 of their last 5 matches, while Hereford have struggled with only 1 win in their last 5. Head-to-head records favor South Shields, who won the last two encounters, and their advanced metrics show higher xG (1.8 vs 1.2 per game). No major injuries reported for South Shields in the last 6 hours, and odds shortening from 2.05 to 1.96 indicates sharp money flow despite public leaning towards the home team. Implied probability of 51% undervalues their true win probability of 58%.
14 Mar 2026 | 03:00 PM
Merthyr Town VS Spennymoor Town
Merthyr Town holds a strong home record in the National League North, winning 7 of their last 10 home games with superior xG metrics (1.8 per match vs Spennymoor's 1.2 away). Spennymoor Town has struggled on the road, losing 6 of 9 recent away fixtures amid key injuries to midfielders Glen Taylor and Andrew Johnson confirmed in the last 24 hours. Head-to-head favors Merthyr with 3 wins in the last 5 meetings, and no significant weather or referee biases noted. Implied probability of 46% undervalues Merthyr's true win chance of 55% based on form and advanced stats.