12 Jan 2026 | 07:00 PM
AFC Wimbledon VS West Ham United U21
Market and sharp splits on EFL Trophy group games show heavier ticket count on Wimbledon but some respected money nibbling West Ham U21, yet no meaningful reverse line movement off a fair -110/-105 type opener, suggesting the current price is close to efficient. AFC Wimbledon are mid-table but solid at home in League Two with strong xG and set‑piece numbers, while West Ham U21s have struggled physically against senior EFL sides in this competition despite good technical metrics. No major late injuries or rotation flags have emerged for Wimbledon, while U21 lineups are more volatile and sensitive to first‑team needs. I estimate Wimbledon’s true win probability around 54–56%, slightly above the implied ~51%, creating a small positive‑EV position on the home side rather than the draw or the U21 upset.
13 Jan 2026 | 07:00 PM
Luton Town VS Swindon
Market data shows a higher share of sharp money on Luton despite some public interest in the underdog, with the price on Luton holding or slightly shortening rather than drifting, indicating no negative sharp resistance. Recent injury and rotation news suggests Luton will still field a stronger, deeper squad than Swindon, whose defensive availability and away rotation look more fragile. Advanced xG and shot-quality metrics from league and cup play point to Luton creating more sustained chances, especially at home, while Swindon’s away defensive xG against is poor. Given the implied probability of 1.74 is slightly below our projected true win probability for Luton, backing Luton Town to win in 90 minutes is a modest but positive-EV position.
13 Jan 2026 | 07:00 PM
Bolton VS Port Vale
Bolton have been one of the stronger League One sides with solid xG differential and a strong home record, while Port Vale have struggled away and created relatively little going forward. Recent EFL Trophy and league lineups show Bolton rotating but still fielding a competitive core, whereas Port Vale’s depth has been less reliable. Current market pricing and typical public vs sharp splits in this range suggest modest support on Bolton despite some public interest in the big away price, with no significant reverse line movement away from the favorite. My estimated true win probability for Bolton is around 56–58%, higher than the implied ~52%, making Bolton a small but positive-EV home win bet.
13 Jan 2026 | 07:00 PM
Doncaster VS Fleetwood Town
Market data from major books shows Doncaster attracting more sharp money than public tickets, with their price shortening slightly despite balanced or slightly Fleetwood-leaning public action, indicating mild reverse line movement. Recent league and cup form plus underlying chance-creation numbers (xG and shots in the box) favor Doncaster at home, while Fleetwood’s away metrics and defensive xG allowed remain poor. No major fresh injury absences or weather concerns significantly shift the matchup, and Doncaster’s home performances in cup ties have been solid relative to Fleetwood’s away record. My estimated true win probability for Doncaster is around 55–57%, higher than the implied ~51% from 1.96, creating a small but positive expected value on the home win.
13 Jan 2026 | 07:00 PM
Bristol Rovers VS Plymouth Argyle
Market and sharp splits show more money than tickets on Plymouth plus some mild reverse line movement toward them, indicating sharper support at current odds. Recent form and xG-based metrics have Plymouth creating higher-quality chances and trending upward, while Bristol Rovers remain inconsistent defensively despite home advantage. Head-to-head and away performance data suggest Plymouth travel reasonably well and have the more reliable attacking output. My estimated true win probability for Plymouth is slightly above the implied ~43%, making them a small +EV play over the draw or Bristol Rovers.
13 Jan 2026 | 07:00 PM
Huddersfield Town VS Rotherham
Huddersfield have shown stronger underlying metrics (xG differential and chance creation) than Rotherham over recent months and their home form has improved, while Rotherham’s away performances remain among the poorest in the EFL. Early market data shows a higher proportion of sharp money backing Huddersfield despite some public interest in the big price on Rotherham, with no significant reverse line movement against the favorite. Recent head-to-heads and form tilt toward Huddersfield, and there are no major late injury or weather concerns significantly favoring Rotherham. At the current price, Huddersfield’s true win probability appears higher than the implied odds, creating a modest but positive value edge on the home side.
13 Jan 2026 | 07:00 PM
Stockport County VS Harrogate Town
Market pricing and early books show Stockport as a strong home favorite with little reverse line movement despite public interest on the plus-money underdog, implying respect for the favorite. Stockport’s underlying league metrics (xG differential, chance creation, and defensive solidity) are significantly better than Harrogate’s, and their home form has been consistently strong. Harrogate’s away numbers and xG profile are poor, and they have struggled to generate quality chances against top half League Two sides. Even after adjusting for potential rotation typical of the EFL Trophy, Stockport’s true win probability appears comfortably above the ~65% implied by 1.53, providing a modest but real value edge on the home win.
14 Jan 2026 | 07:00 PM
Northampton Town VS Walsall FC
Market and early splits show more tickets on Walsall but sharper money stabilizing around Northampton, with no significant reverse line movement against them at this price. Recent xG trend and home attacking output for Northampton in cups and league have been slightly stronger than Walsall’s away metrics, while both sides are near full strength with only minor squad rotation expected. Northampton’s home split and recent form edge, combined with Walsall’s inconsistency on the road, make the implied probability at 2.88 slightly undervaluing the hosts. The draw is live in a cup tie, but Northampton offers the clearest +EV angle among the three outcomes.