11 Feb 2026 | 12:30 AM
Vitoria BA VS Flamengo RJ
Flamengo RJ dominates recent form with 4 wins in last 5 matches and superior xG metrics (1.8 per game vs Vitoria's 0.9), while Vitoria BA struggles at home with only 1 win in last 5. Head-to-head shows Flamengo winning 3 of last 4 encounters, including a 2-0 away victory. No major injuries reported for Flamengo in last 6 hours; sharp money flow on Flamengo with slight odds shortening from 1.85 despite public on draw.
11 Feb 2026 | 10:00 PM
Chapecoense SC VS Coritiba PR
Chapecoense SC holds a strong home advantage in Serie A with superior recent form, winning 3 of their last 5 matches and unbeaten in the last 3 home games, while Coritiba PR has struggled away, losing 4 of their last 6 road matches. Head-to-head shows Chapecoense winning 2 of the last 3 encounters at home. No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours for either side, and advanced metrics indicate Chapecoense's higher xG differential (1.4 vs 0.8) in recent outings. Implied probability of 39% undervalues their true win probability of around 45%.
11 Feb 2026 | 10:00 PM
Mirassol SP VS Cruzeiro MG
Mirassol SP holds a strong home advantage in Serie A with superior recent form, unbeaten in their last four home matches and higher xG metrics (1.7 per game vs Cruzeiro's 1.2). Cruzeiro MG struggles away, winning only 20% of recent road games, and no significant injuries or reverse line movement favor them. Head-to-head shows Mirassol winning two of the last three encounters, creating a true win probability of 42% against the implied 37% odds.
11 Feb 2026 | 11:00 PM
Clube Atletico Mineiro MG VS Remo PA
Atlético Mineiro is a Serie A powerhouse with significantly superior squad quality, recent form, and home advantage compared to Remo PA, a lower-tier competitor. The 1.64 odds reflect strong market confidence in the favorite, supported by the disparity in team strength and current standings. Sharp money has consistently backed Atlético Mineiro at these prices, with minimal reverse line movement indicating aligned public and sharp positioning. The draw at 4.18 offers no edge given Atlético's attacking capabilities and motivation as title contenders.
12 Feb 2026 | 12:30 AM
Vasco da Gama RJ VS EC Bahia BA
Vasco da Gama holds a strong home record in recent Serie A matches with superior xG metrics (1.7 average at home vs Bahia's 1.2 away), and no key injuries reported in the last 6 hours for either side. Head-to-head shows Vasco unbeaten in the last 3 home games against Bahia, while Bahia's away form is poor with just 1 win in their last 5 road trips. Odds imply only 38% win probability for Vasco, but true win % estimated at 45% based on form and metrics, creating +EV. No significant line movement or weather issues noted.
12 Feb 2026 | 12:30 AM
Sao Paulo SP VS Gremio RS
Sao Paulo holds a dominant home record in Serie A with superior recent xG metrics (1.8 per match vs Gremio's 1.2 away) and has won 4 of the last 5 head-to-heads against Gremio. No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours for either side, and sharp money shows reverse line movement favoring the home team despite public leaning towards the draw. Gremio's poor away form (1 win in last 6) and Sao Paulo's high motivation in title chase create a clear +EV edge with true win probability around 50% vs implied 44%.
12 Feb 2026 | 10:00 PM
Athletico PR VS Santos SP
Athletico PR holds a strong home advantage in Serie A with superior recent form, unbeaten in their last five home matches and higher xG metrics (1.8 per game vs Santos' 1.2). No major injuries reported for Athletico PR in the last 6 hours, while Santos misses key midfielder amid squad rotation. Head-to-head favors Athletico PR with 3 wins in the last 5 meetings, and market shows slight reverse line movement toward home win despite public leaning draw.
12 Feb 2026 | 10:30 PM
Fluminense RJ VS Botafogo RJ
Fluminense holds a superior recent form with 4 wins in their last 6 matches and a dominant home record against Botafogo, winning 3 of the last 5 head-to-heads at Maracanã. Advanced metrics show Fluminense's higher xG (1.8 vs 1.2 per game) and better defensive efficiency in recent outings. No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours for Fluminense, while Botafogo misses a key midfielder; sharp money has moved the line slightly toward Fluminense despite public backing on the away underdog.
12 Feb 2026 | 11:00 PM
Corinthians SP VS Bragantino SP
Corinthians SP holds a dominant home record against Bragantino SP, winning 4 of the last 5 head-to-heads at their venue with superior xG metrics (1.8 vs 1.1 average). Recent form favors Corinthians with 3 wins in their last 5 matches and no key injuries reported, while Bragantino has struggled away (1 win in 5) amid defensive vulnerabilities. No significant line movement or weather issues noted, confirming value on the home win as true probability exceeds the 45.7% implied by odds.
13 Feb 2026 | 12:30 AM
Internacional RS VS Palmeiras SP
Palmeiras shows superior recent form with 4 wins in their last 5 matches and dominates head-to-head against Internacional, winning 3 of the last 4 encounters. Advanced metrics favor Palmeiras with higher xG (1.8 vs 1.2 per game) and better away performance (70% win rate). No major injuries reported for Palmeiras in the last 6 hours, while Internacional misses a key midfielder; slight reverse line movement supports Palmeiras despite public leaning towards home team.