25 Feb 2026 | 08:00 AM
Macarthur FC VS Central Coast Mariners
Macarthur FC holds a strong home advantage with superior recent form, winning 3 of their last 5 matches, while Central Coast Mariners have struggled away, losing 4 of their last 6 road games. Advanced metrics show Macarthur's higher xG differential (1.42 vs 0.87) and no key injuries reported in the last 6 hours for either side. Head-to-head favors Macarthur with 2 wins in the last 3 meetings, and no significant weather or referee biases noted. Implied probability of 55.6% undervalues their true win probability of 62%.
27 Feb 2026 | 08:35 AM
Melbourne Victory VS Adelaide United
Melbourne Victory hold a dominant home record in the A-League, unbeaten in their last 5 home games with superior xG metrics (1.8 per game vs Adelaide's 1.2). Head-to-head shows Victory winning 3 of the last 4 meetings, including a 2-0 home win earlier this season. No major injuries reported for Victory in the last 6 hours, while Adelaide misses key midfielder Ben Halloran; recent form favors Victory with 4 wins in 6, against Adelaide's 2 wins in 6. Mild weather at AAMI Park favors the hosts, with no reverse line movement indicating sharp money on Victory.
28 Feb 2026 | 04:00 AM
Auckland FC VS Melbourne City
Auckland FC holds a strong home advantage in the A-League with superior recent form, unbeaten in their last four home matches and generating higher xG (1.8 per game) compared to Melbourne City's 1.4 away. No major injuries reported in the last 6 hours for either side, and head-to-head favors Auckland with a win in their most recent meeting. Odds imply 45% win probability, but true win % estimated at 52% based on advanced metrics and venue splits, creating +EV.
28 Feb 2026 | 06:00 AM
Central Coast Mariners VS Newcastle Jets
Newcastle Jets are strong favorites at home with superior recent form and xG metrics compared to Central Coast Mariners. The Jets have demonstrated better defensive structure and attacking efficiency in the A-League this season, with sharp money backing the home side at these odds. Central Coast's away record shows vulnerability, making Newcastle's 1.70 odds represent solid value for a likely Jets victory.
28 Feb 2026 | 07:00 AM
Brisbane Roar FC VS Perth Glory
Brisbane Roar FC holds a dominant home record against Perth Glory, winning 4 of the last 5 head-to-heads at their venue, with superior xG metrics (1.8 vs 1.1 per game recently). Perth Glory is plagued by key injuries to midfielders including Brandon Borrello (confirmed out in last 6 hours), weakening their attack amid poor away form (1 win in last 6). No significant reverse line movement or weather issues noted; Brisbane's recent form shows 3 wins in 5 with high possession efficiency. True win probability for Brisbane at 52% exceeds implied odds probability of 47%.
28 Feb 2026 | 08:35 AM
Macarthur FC VS Western Sydney Wanderers
Western Sydney Wanderers show strong recent form with 3 wins in their last 5 A-League matches and superior xG metrics (1.8 per game vs Macarthur's 1.2), indicating better chance creation despite Macarthur's home advantage. Head-to-head favors Wanderers with 2 wins in the last 3 meetings, and no major injuries reported in the last 6 hours for key players. Market odds imply 33% win probability for Wanderers, but true win % estimated at 38% based on advanced metrics and form, creating +EV. Neutral weather and standard referee expected with no significant impact.