Toulouse FC are slight favorites to win based on current Ligue 1 form, sitting on 23 points from 17 matches compared to OGC Nice on 18 points from 17 matches, and having won 2 of the last 5 head-to-heads with only 1 defeat. Typical market prices this week have Toulouse around 2.30, Nice near 3.10 and the draw at about 3.20, reflecting a modest home edge that value-focused bettors can target on DexWin - Best Odds on Your Favourite Sports.

The match between Toulouse FC and OGC Nice is scheduled to start at 6:00 PM local time in France on 17 January 2026, which corresponds to 5:00 PM UTC in the winter season. Fans should arrive early to account for security checks and pre-match build-up around the ground.

This Ligue 1 clash will be played at Stadium de Toulouse in Toulouse, a modern all-seater venue with a capacity of about 33,150 and a traditional football layout offering good sightlines. Located on the island of Ramier by the Garonne River, it regularly hosts top-flight French fixtures and is known for a lively home atmosphere that often boosts Toulouse FC’s performance.

Given Toulouse’s slightly stronger league position at 6-5-6 and +2 goal difference versus Nice at 5-3-9 and -5, plus home advantage, a narrow home win is the most probable outcome with implied win probabilities near 43% for Toulouse, 31% for a draw and 26% for Nice based on current odds ranges. Punters looking for value might also consider Toulouse draw-no-bet at around 1.65–1.70, as it leverages their good recent record without fully exposing against a resilient Nice side.

In the last five Ligue 1 meetings since November 2023, Toulouse FC and OGC Nice are level with 2 wins each and 1 draw: Nice 1-0 Toulouse in November 2023, Toulouse 2-1 Nice in March 2024, Nice 1-1 Toulouse in August 2024, Toulouse 1-1 Nice in February 2025, and Nice 0-1 Toulouse in August 2025. Across these fixtures the aggregate score is 5-4 in Toulouse’s favor, underlining how tight this matchup has been while slightly tilting towards Toulouse in recent seasons.