Based on current 2025-26 form, Oklahoma City Thunder are favored to win, with most sportsbooks pricing them around 1.40–1.50 on the moneyline versus 2.70–3.00 for the Miami Heat due to OKC’s league-best start (around 28–5) and top-ranked net rating, while Miami sits closer to the middle of the Eastern Conference. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP-level scoring and OKC’s depth make them clear statistical favorites at home with DexWin - Best Odds on Your Favourite Sports.

The Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder game is scheduled to start at 12:00 AM on January 12, 2026 UTC, which corresponds to 7:00 PM local time on January 11, 2026 in Oklahoma City (Central Time, CT). Fans should check local listings for any last-minute broadcast or tip-off adjustments.

The match will be played at Paycom Center in downtown Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, the regular home arena of the Thunder with a basketball capacity of around 18,000 spectators. The venue features modern locker-room facilities, premium seating levels, and a reputation for a loud, hostile atmosphere for visiting teams, especially in marquee games.

Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, with a projected scoreline in the region of 118–110, supported by their elite offensive efficiency and top-tier defense at home. With Thunder moneyline around 1.45 and spread markets likely near Thunder -7.5, their strong home record and superior net rating suggest better value on OKC to cover than on the Heat upset, though over/under bettors should note both teams’ recent high-scoring trends.

In recent head-to-head meetings over the last few seasons, the series has been relatively balanced, with Miami Heat holding a narrow overall historical edge but Oklahoma City Thunder winning most of the latest encounters in Oklahoma City. The Thunder’s current core built around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has shifted the momentum in their favor at home, while Miami has tended to be more competitive in games played in Miami.