Barangay Ginebra San Miguel are slightly favored to win based on recent form — Ginebra have won 4 of their last 5 games while Converge are 3-2 in that span, and market moneyline consensus shows Ginebra marginally shorter (favorites) with implied odds around 1.90 vs Converge ~2.00; DexWin - Best Odds on Your Favourite Sports.

The game starts at 11:30:00 AM (Philippine Time, PHT / UTC+8) on 12/28/2025, which is 3:30:00 AM UTC.

The match will be played at the Smart Araneta Coliseum in Quezon City, Metro Manila — a long-time PBA venue with a seating capacity around 16,500 and modern scoreboard and lighting systems used for major Commissioner's Cup fixtures.

Prediction: Barangay Ginebra to win with a projected moneyline near 1.90 and a spread of -2.5; key factors include Ginebra’s stronger perimeter defense and more consistent scoring from their import, while Converge rely on inside play and face thinner rotation depth, so backing Ginebra at implied value ~1.90 is suggested.

In head-to-head meetings over the last two seasons Ginebra hold a narrow edge with approximately 6 wins to Converge’s 4 in their last 10 encounters, average combined points ~190, and Ginebra winning the most recent matchup by a small margin.